Last season, just two of the eight teams that were division leaders after the first four weeks managed to hold on the rest of the way. Three of those leaders (the Colts, Lions, and Buccaneers) didn't even make the playoffs.
So plenty can and will change between now and the end of the 2026 regular season.
For now, there's a mix of the usual suspects like the Bills, Chiefs, and 49ers with some surprises like the Browns and Giants atop the standings. Which of those contenders are in a good position to go wire to wire, and which ones are ripe for an implosion?
Here are the eight division leaders through the first four weeks, ranked from the teams that'll probably dominate all season to the teams doomed to tumble down the standings.
Kansas City Chiefs
After a rough 2025 for Kansas City, the AFC West is back to the status quo: three teams struggling to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and Co.
The Chiefs have already picked up wins against the Broncos and Raiders during their 4-0 start. After a Week 5 bye, they'll get a chance to earn a third division victory when they host the currently winless Chargers.
While the 3-1 Raiders are off to a strong start, it's still a little hard to trust the Kirk Cousins-led squad as a legitimate contender. There's also plenty of reason to doubt that Bo Nix and the Broncos have the firepower to make up their two-game deficit in the division race.
Barring injuries or a stunning collapse, all signs point toward a 10th AFC West title in 11 years for the Chiefs.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The reigning AFC South champs look like one of the NFL's best squads so far, and they've compiled their 3-1 record against solid competition. None of the teams the Jaguars have faced so far this year has a losing record.
Elsewhere in the division, things are pretty bleak. The Texans and Titans play Sunday, and, presumably, one of those teams will finally get its first win. For now, the 2-2 Colts are the only club within striking distance of Jacksonville, but their offense and defense rank 25th and 31st in the NFL, respectively.
The Jaguars still haven't played a divisional opponent, so there's room for things to go south. But it looks like they're simply a much better football team than their AFC South competition.
San Francisco 49ers
It's hard to argue that any team had a better first month than the 49ers. They scored the second-most points in the NFL, allowed the third fewest, and outscored their opponents (including the Rams) by an average of 14.5 points.
The only reason they're not higher in this ranking of division leaders is the quality of the NFC West. Neither the Seahawks nor the Rams look quite right on offense, yet they're 3-1 and 2-2, respectively. Those two teams entered the year as Super Bowl favorites, and one or both could start jelling soon. Seattle could turn the narratives and the division on their head as early as this weekend when the Seahawks host the 49ers.
Buffalo Bills
A week ago, the Bills probably would've been No. 1 on this list. However, a 29-26 loss to the Patriots made Buffalo's pursuit of the division crown more challenging.
The Bills' brutal slate of upcoming opponents (at Rams, at Raiders, versus Ravens, at Vikings) threatens to allow New England to waltz into the top spot in the AFC East. In the long run, however, Buffalo still looks like the team to beat in the division. No AFC East team has scored more points, and Drake Maye hasn't shown enough consistency to inspire confidence that his bounce-back performance in Week 4 heralded a genuine return to form.
The two-horse race will be interesting, but the Bills are the safer bet to come out on top.
Carolina Panthers
If nothing else, the Panthers are a lot of fun. Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan are becoming a lethal combo, and Carolina's defense, while leaky, is capable of forcing turnovers and making game-changing plays.
Thanks to a 34-3 demolition of the Falcons in Week 2, Carolina has a little wiggle room in the NFC South race. But things have changed in Atlanta. After two games of offensive futility with Cooper Rush at quarterback, the return of Michael Penix Jr. has coincided with the Falcons turning into a juggernaut that blew the doors off the Packers and Saints.
It's also a little too early to completely dismiss the Saints, who have a capable offense, and the Buccaneers, who've lost all four of their games by seven points or fewer. The NFC South has a reputation for wackiness, and there's plenty of time for the division to turn upside down once or twice before the year is over.
Minnesota Vikings
With a defense that's grinding every opposing quarterback into dust, the Vikings are undefeated and already have two divisional wins. The problem is that their Kyler Murray-led offense isn't doing much of anything. Minnesota didn't score a touchdown in two of its four wins, a dubious feat that no other 4-0 team has managed in over 100 years.
Meanwhile, the 3-1 Bears overcame the absence of Caleb Williams to win back-to-back games with Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent at quarterback. The Packers and Lions offer more questions than answers at this point, but they're both 2-2 and still in the mix.
If the Vikings don't start scoring touchdowns soon, it'll be a matter of time before the deep NFC North swallows them up.
New York Giants
Realistically, the Giants' chances of contending in 2026 likely evaporated when Jaxson Dart suffered a knee injury that required surgery to repair. While Jameis Winston is 2-0 as his replacement, New York squeaked out a win against the hapless Titans without scoring a touchdown and needed a pick-6 at the goal line as time expired to seal victory over the 1-3 Cardinals.
The bright side for the Giants is that they're playing well on defense and have winnable matchups in the next few weeks (at Commanders, versus Saints, at Texans). It doesn't hurt that the Eagles mostly look lost and the Cowboys need prolific performances from Dak Prescott to overcome their porous defense.
Still, Dallas and Philadelphia appear to be the two teams that'll duke it out for the NFC East crown.
Cleveland Browns
After the Browns got flattened by the Jaguars in their opener, it seemed Deshaun Watson's time as the starting quarterback was destined to end expeditiously. Instead, Cleveland rattled off wins against the Buccaneers, Panthers, and Steelers to claim top-dog status in the AFC North.
Will it last? Almost certainly not.
Cleveland took the lead in the last four minutes of all three of its wins. While that's a commendable accomplishment, it doesn't signal sustainable success for a team that ranks 23rd in offense and 23rd in defense.
There are no losing records in the AFC North, and it shouldn't take long for another contender (or maybe even all three) to knock the Browns out of first place.
Adam Stites is a contributing writer for theScore.
