MLB Tuesday best bets: Dodgers to rebound in Colorado
Those two defeats pushed my season record to 24-17-4 for an 11.1% ROI. We'll look to pad those totals with a pair of plays for Tuesday night's big slate.
There is real potential for offense in this one, particularly in the first half of the game.
Corbin owns a 5.96 FIP over the last month and has conceded 2.66 homers per nine innings in that span. He isn't giving up fly balls at a high rate; the problem is an astronomically high hard-hit rate (41.5%).
Teams are tearing the seams off the ball against him, which is why balls leave the park with such frequency (21.9 HR/FB%) when they're put in the air.
The Pirates don't get on base at a high clip vs left-handers, but they do hit for plenty of power. Like most teams, they should be able to do some damage against Corbin.
The Nationals are also in a good spot to plate some runs. Among today's projected starters, Quintana has one of the highest hard rates allowed over the last month. He's right there with Corbin in terms of HR/FB% as well. A lot of the balls put in the air against him go yard.
Washington has hit for a lot of power versus lefties over the last month - they sit eighth in ISO - and they're not giving opposing pitchers many free outs, sitting 10th in K% (lower numbers being better).
Expect to see five or six runs in the first half of this contest.
Bet: F5 over 4.5 runs (-115)
They have hit left-handed pitching quite well of late, owning a .338 wOBA (10th) and .191 ISO (eighth) over the last six weeks. They've also walked nearly 10% of the time and posted the third-lowest soft-contact rate in the majors.
Put another way, they're hitting for power, drawing walks, and making good, hard contact when they swing. That spells trouble for Kyle Freeland.
The 29-year-old lefty owns a 4.63 FIP and 5.68 xFIP over the last 30 days. That is well above his ERA of 3.86, suggesting some regression could be coming. Freehand has also struck out less than 10% of batters faced.
A lot of balls are being put in play, which is recipe for disaster against a hard-hitting Dodgers team playing in the very friendly environment of Coors Field.
If the Dodgers can get to Freeland, they have a real opportunity to blow the game wide-open. Colorado's bullpen owns the sixth-highest xFIP over the last 30 days.
While the Rockies hit lefties quite well, Clayton Kershaw enters this game in very fine form. He owns a 2.40 ERA, a 2.80 FIP, and has struck out nine batters per nine over the last month.
He should be able to keep Colorado's offense to a manageable number, which is likely all he needs to do given the support coming his way.
Each of Los Angeles' last 13 wins came by multiple runs. Expect that streak to continue.
Bet: Dodgers -1.5 (-140)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.