Monday was a solid one for our best bets, as we came one Hunter Brown strikeout shy of a perfect 3-0 night.
We'll look to carry the momentum forward with three more plays for Tuesday night.
Mets (-150) @ Brewers (+130)
The Mets were trounced in the opening game of the series, falling 10-0 at the hands of the Brewers.
I expect them to get back on track in Game 2, where they should get started early.
Max Scherzer may no longer be at the peak of his powers but remains one of the best pitchers in the sport. He was solid in his first outing of the season, allowing four hits and striking out six over six innings of work. His xERA was much lower than his actual ERA, and he allowed very little hard contact, which is a good sign.
The Brewers have struck out a lot and hit for very little power (0.89 ISO) against righties in the early going of this season. Scherzer should be able to limit them offensively over the first half of the game.
I'm not so sure the same can be said of Wade Miley. He doesn't sit down many batters and struggles against righties. The Mets don't strikeout often and are expected to start a very right-handed-heavy lineup.
It's also worth noting the Mets have been tough on left-handed arms thus far. They own a .371 wOBA, and .212 ISO, through the first few games of the season. They've taken 75 ABs against lefties - second most in the majors - so the numbers are a little more telling for the Mets than most other sides.
With one of the league's best pitchers on the mound, and a lineup very tough on lefties, the Mets are in good position to start fast.
Bet: Mets F5 -0.5 (-110)
Luis Castillo under 7.5 strikeouts (-120)
Castillo is an excellent pitcher poised to have a big year with the Mariners. This bet is not about any problem with the player; it's a problem with the line.
Simply put, 7.5 strikeouts is a lot. The number is too high for me. Dating back to last season, Castillo has gone over this total just 11 times in 28 starts. That's a 39% hit rate.
With Hunter Renfroe and Gio Urshela added in the offseason, and some key players getting healthy, the Angels look like a more potent team this year. They don't have many strikeout-prone batters in their lineup and that shows in the numbers early; their strikeout rate is seventh lowest in the majors thus far.
Castillo strikes out just over a batter an inning on average. Assuming this game plays out directly in line with those numbers, he'll probably need to throw seven innings to get there.
He only threw 76 pitches in his season debut, and the Angels are not pushovers at the dish, so I'm not sure Castillo will last that deeply into the game.
It might be a sweat but, for me, this prop total is a strikeout higher than it should be.
Kyle Schwarber over 1.5 total bases (+120)
Schwarber - like his team as a whole - is off to a slow start to the campaign. Very slow. He has gotten on base just once through four games while striking out seven times.
A hitter like Schwarber is not going to remain this cold forever, though, and Tuesday offers a great opportunity to get on track.
Yankees starter Domingo Germán predominantly throws curveballs, fastballs, and changeups. Schwarber is one of the league's best fastball hitters and fares very well against the change as well. He profiles well against German's pitch arsenal.
Schwarber also destroys right-handed pitching. Among all players with at least 200 plate appearances against righties last season, only Aaron Judge and Mike Trout posted higher ISOs.
This is a spot where Schwarber could go over the number - and then some - with one swing of the bat.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
