Tarik Skubal's time in Detroit appears to be coming to an end. While it always seemed likely that the reigning back-to-back AL Cy Young winner was playing out his final season with the Tigers, the club's position near the bottom of the American League standings makes a trade prior to the Aug. 3 deadline seem inevitable.
Why would the Tigers do it?
Although Detroit is coming off consecutive playoff appearances and possesses a solid young core, unrelenting injuries and underperformance by several players have resulted in what feels like a lost year. With no extension in sight and Skubal expected to sign a record contract this winter, it only makes sense for the Tigers to try to get a haul for their homegrown star. The front office clearly has a good idea of the starting price for Skubal's next contract. The moment he hits free agency, that amount likely goes up even higher. Considering Detroit's place in the standings and the improbability of re-signing Skubal, the decision to move on from the ace should be easier. Trading him could give the franchise core pieces it might not otherwise be able to find.
What are the historical comps for trade packages?
There isn't much precedent for a team trading a player with Skubal's resume at the deadline. The best example might also come from the Tigers, when they traded David Price to the Toronto Blue Jays in 2015 for pitching prospects Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd, and Jairo Labourt.
Like Skubal, Price was in the final year of his deal and among the top starters in the majors. Norris, Toronto's top prospect, ranked No. 17 overall by MLB Pipeline. Boyd was the Blue Jays' No. 22 prospect, while Labourt ranked 13th. Both Norris and Boyd had already made their MLB debuts.
Skubal's talent is undeniable, though there are two significant factors to consider when evaluating a return. The first is his health. Skubal's expected to miss several months after undergoing arthroscopic elbow surgery, and how he looks leading into the trade deadline will significantly shape any deal. Second is the financial aspect - how much of the remaining $32 million on his contract will the Tigers cover? If Skubal isn't traded until close to the deadline, he'll still be owed roughly $11 million, which is a significant amount of salary for any team to add so late in the season. To facilitate a better return, Detroit could agree to eat most of that money or take back another contract.
The Tigers would likely target starting pitching and outfield help in any deal, with a focus on players who have either already made their MLB debut or are on the verge of reaching the majors.
Who are the teams that could trade for Skubal?
Los Angeles Dodgers
The discussions around the next collective bargaining agreement seem to be focused on Dodger-proofing MLB, so why not make the most of the current rules before they're gone? The reigning champs will always be shopping at the top of the market, regardless of whether it's in free agency or at the trade deadline. Despite all of the L.A.'s talent and depth, it could use another starter. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani are pitching like Cy Young contenders, but the rotation is questionable after them, especially with Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell sidelined indefinitely.
Boasting seven top-100 prospects, Los Angeles is as well-equipped as any team to build a prospect package for Skubal. The Dodgers could also consider dealing any number of young players off their MLB roster, such as Dalton Rushing, Emmet Sheehan, and Alex Freeland.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have gotten back on track following a turbulent start to the season, but warning signs are everywhere: the window is quickly closing for this core. Dave Dombrowski has always had a flair for the dramatic, and acquiring Skubal would be just that. The executive was brought to Philadelphia to deliver a championship, and acquiring Skubal to pitch alongside Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sánchez is as good as any team could throw out come playoff time. However, the Phillies don't have nearly as much prospect capital as other teams - top prospect Aidan Miller would almost assuredly be in the deal - and you could argue that the lineup is a bigger concern. But with restrictions likely coming in the next CBA for big spenders like Philadelphia, the time is now to push the chips in.
Toronto Blue Jays
The reigning AL champs have managed to tread water despite an overwhelming amount of injuries across the first two months. Luckily, Kevin Gausman, Dylan Cease, and Trey Yesavage have all been excellent, providing stability atop the rotation.
Though Toronto's farm system isn't loaded with talent, it has shortstops JoJo Parker (No. 31) and Arjun Nimmala (No. 55) as possible pieces. The organization has also done a great job in recent years of getting strong production from young players who weren't necessarily high on prospect lists (Yohendrick Piñango, Brandon Valenzuela, and Addison Barger). Similar to the Phillies' situation, maybe the Blue Jays' front office sees the threat of significant salary restrictions on the horizon and opts to get aggressive in a wide-open AL.
While you can never have too much pitching, it's more likely that Toronto's front office will instead use its resources to prop up an underwhelming lineup and overworked bullpen.
San Diego Padres
A.J. Preller always seems to find the pieces he needs to pull off any blockbuster, but it feels like acquiring Skubal would be tough to maneuver unless he can get extremely creative, even by his standards. Additionally, San Diego has other needs. Although landing an ace is certainly among them, using the team's assets to better round out the roster makes more sense, and improving the offense should be the priority. Still, expect Preller to at least be involved in the Skubal sweepstakes.
Atlanta Braves
It's been almost 11 years since Alex Anthopoulos traded for Price at the deadline. Could he land another Tigers ace this time around with Atlanta? Coming off a disastrous 2025 campaign, the Braves are once again healthy and own the best record in baseball. Atlanta's offense and bullpen have been excellent, but the rotation is one area the club could look to address. Durability issues surrounding Chris Sale and Spencer Strider will always hang over the team, so landing a proven frontline starter like Skubal could be the difference in making a long postseason run.
Atlanta hasn't advanced past the Division Series since winning the World Series in 2021. A number of its star players are signed long term, but this isn't exactly a young group. Given that this team is fully in its championship window, Anthopoulos would be wise to be aggressive with everything going right this season.
The Braves' farm system sits in the bottom third, and their top prospect, Cam Caminiti, is ranked 48th by MLB Pipeline. Atlanta does, however, have several intriguing young injured pitchers in Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Hurston Waldrep who could form a potential package.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have made just one playoff appearance over the previous five years and haven't reached the NLCS in nearly a decade. Jed Hoyer needs to act with extreme urgency, as this talented, veteran club owns a top-10 offense and a bottom-five rotation. Though injuries have contributed to Chicago's pitching struggles, it lacks a true ace even at full strength.
Skubal would be a game-changer on the North Side, and no team among this group would arguably benefit more from adding the left-hander.
The Cubs might be in their championship window, but it's questionable whether they're close enough to being a true World Series contender, even with Skubal. They've shown this season that they can be as hot or as cold as anyone. After giving up a sizeable package for one year of Kyle Tucker, should Chicago really mortgage more of its future in a trade package for another rental?
Seattle Mariners
Considering its strong rotation, adding a starting pitcher isn't necessarily a priority for Seattle. However, the Mariners should be motivated to think big after a disappointing ALCS loss in 2025.
Seattle's set up well long term, with the bulk of its core under team control through at least the next two seasons. It also has five top-50 prospects, several of whom are poised to make the jump to the majors either this season or next.
Jerry Dipoto could continue to let this roster play things out and enjoy the next wave of young players coming through to supplement it. But with the AL again wide open and the Mariners still searching for their first World Series title, it might be time to take that big swing and really go for it.
