Saturday night's Game 7 between the Celtics and 76ers will mark another chapter in their storied rivalry. Boston and Philadelphia have met in the postseason more than any two teams in the NBA, but the Sixers haven't won a playoff series against the Celtics since 1982.
Although Philly forced a Game 7 after trailing 3-1, the Celtics are still a hefty 7.5-point favorites in the do-or-die finale in Boston. This series has swung dramatically since Joel Embiid returned from his appendectomy, with the Sixers going 2-1 since his comeback. Prior to Game 5, oddsmakers favored the Celtics by 10.5 points at home. But after the 76ers won on the road and secured a Game 6 win in Philadelphia, the line has dropped three points for Game 7 back at TD Garden. Is that enough of an adjustment?
While Embiid has earned some respect from oddsmakers, the 76ers have clearly been the better team since the seven-time All-Star returned, as he's a matchup nightmare for Boston's bigs. Led by Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia's pick-and-roll game is an unsolvable equation. When the Celtics sit in drop coverage, Maxey punishes them from deep, connecting on 41% of his threes. If Boston comes up to the level of the screen, Maxey delivers a pocket pass to Embiid, who's unstoppable at the free-throw line.
Embiid is averaging the most points as the pick-and-roll roll man this postseason, while Maxey ranks second among ball-handlers in the same category.
Across from one of the league's best guard-big duos is soon-to-be 36-year-old Paul George, who's amid a resurrection following two injury-plagued seasons and a suspension. He's scoring 1.31 points per isolation possession, the second-best mark this playoffs. Meanwhile, he's hitting a whopping 54.3% of his 3-pointers, the second-best among players who attempt at least five threes per game. Beyond the scoring and playmaking, George is also consistently defending Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown.
The Sixers were +2500 to win the series after trailing 3-1. Their defense has fueled the comeback, holding the Celtics to under 100 points and worse than 30% shooting in Games 5 and 6. Blaming Boston's struggles on cold shooting would be an incomplete analysis. Philly's defensive game plan has consistently prevented the Celtics from generating paint touches and stifled drives without overhelping, instead forcing Boston into tough, isolation-heavy looks against the 76ers' elite perimeter defense.
The Celtics shoot a lot of threes because they earn open looks, but that's not happening against the Sixers, who are eliminating drive-and-kick opportunities. Boston also isn't getting much scoring or playmaking help from anyone outside of Tatum or Brown. Though Tatum left the Celtics' bench in Game 6 due to leg stiffness, he's expected to play in Game 7.
Averaging 26 points, eight rebounds, and 7.3 assists, Embiid has established himself as the most dominant player in the series. With a better starting unit and a coach willing to make adjustments, Philadelphia should carry some momentum into a Game 7 upset in Boston.
US: Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER; Hope is here. Call (800)-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org for 24/7 support (MA); Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
ON: Please play responsibly. 19+. ON only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call ConnexOntario 24/7 at 1-866-531-2600. Text us at 247247 or chat with us at www.connexontario.ca.
