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If you're like most bettors, you probably don't target mid-majors until days before the NCAA Tournament. By that point, though, much of the value has already been sapped from some of college basketball's best long shots.
So, with the regular season just days away, here are five mid-major teams you should target right now, along with their title odds to win it all:
Gonzaga (+800)
OK, maybe this is cheating a little bit, given that Gonzaga has mostly outgrown the mid-major label. Still, bettors and prognosticators alike routinely overlook the Bulldogs because of their cupcake schedule, yet this team has the potential to be special. Senior Corey Kispert is one of the best players in the country, and he's flanked by likely one-and-done star Jalen Suggs and a host of veteran studs under Mark Few's watch.
That usual cupcake schedule is a little tougher this year, but Gonzaga should still enter the NCAA Tournament with two or three losses at most, meaning you're unlikely to get a better price than you will now. Unlike with most early favorites, now might be the best time to buy the nation's best mid-major.
Saint Louis (+10000)
Much of the mid-major attention this year has been on Richmond (+4000), which has the second-shortest odds in that tier and is expected by many to win the Atlantic 10. But what about Saint Louis? Outside of Gonzaga, the Billikens rank first among mid-majors in T-Rank and second in KenPom, while they're tied for the sixth-shortest odds of any mid-major.
This group is led by senior Jordan Goodwin, a top-100 guy who is both a double-double machine and an elite defender. He's joined by versatile forward Hasahn French in the frontcourt, while breakout star Javonte Perkins could reach another level after exploding over the back half of 2019-20. The talent is there to not only win the A-10 but to make some noise in March, too.
Dayton (+10000)
I don't need to tell you to show some respect for Dayton, whom many expected to cut down the nets this past April before the NCAA Tournament was canceled. But don't sleep on this team, which returns key pieces from last season's top-five squad and should push Richmond and Saint Louis in the Atlantic 10.
Jalen Crutcher is a bona fide top-15 player in college basketball and should pick up right where Obi Toppin left off as this team's catalyst. The Flyers also return four additional key pieces from last year's group and could potentially add prized transfer Elijah Weaver. While others may fade this team post-Toppin, now is the time to buy.
Loyola Chicago (+25000)
Much like Saint Louis, the Ramblers are being passed over in favor of another team in their own conference, and it doesn't make a ton of sense. Northern Iowa (+7500) is tied for the third-shortest odds among mid-majors, though Loyola Chicago is the best squad in the Missouri Valley and a consensus top-50 team by advanced metrics.
Porter Moser's group is three seasons removed from making the Final Four and is receiving votes in the top 25 this year. How in the world is this team being offered at 250-1? The Ramblers are expected to start five seniors and return almost their entire rotation from a year ago, making them a quintessential Cinderella candidate with a price to match.
Austin Peay (+75000)
How's this for a long shot? Austin Peay is averaging more than 20 wins per season in three years under Matt Figger, and the program has arguably the two best players in the Ohio Valley in Terry Taylor and Jordyn Adams, who combined for just under 40 points per game a year ago.
One dollar on Austin Peay to win it all could earn you $75,000 by season's end. Will the Governors actually win it all? Almost certainly not, but there's enough firepower here to justify a ridiculous long-shot bet and some extra attention in MVC play over the next few months.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
