For much of the season, it looked like Baylor might be just as "unbeatable" as Gonzaga come tournament time. Two losses later, the Bears are still favored to win the South Region, but the road map to the Final Four isn't as clear.
Odds to win the 2021 NCAA Tournament South Region
| TEAM | SEED | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Baylor | 1 | -120 |
| Ohio State | 2 | +400 |
| Arkansas | 3 | +700 |
| Texas Tech | 6 | +800 |
| Villanova | 5 | +800 |
| Purdue | 4 | +900 |
| Wisconsin | 9 | +1000 |
| North Carolina | 8 | +1100 |
| Florida | 7 | +1500 |
| Virginia Tech | 10 | +1700 |
| Utah State | 11 | +2200 |
| Winthrop | 12 | +4000 |
| Colgate | 14 | +5000 |
| North Texas | 13 | +5000 |
| Oral Roberts | 15 | +6000 |
| Hartford | 16 | +8000 |
Should you bet the favorites?
Three weeks ago, I would've said Baylor (-120) could be a better bet to win it all than even Gonzaga. Then came a three-week layoff due to COVID-19. The Bears have looked decidedly less impressive since, with losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State along with narrow victories over Iowa State and Kansas State - two teams that combined to win 11 games this season.
That opens the door for Ohio State (+400), which showed elite upside during a Big Ten Tournament run that ended with Sunday's epic overtime loss to Illinois. The Buckeyes lost four straight to close the regular season - with three defeats coming against top-two seeds - before rediscovering their offensive magic in the conference tournament behind star guard Duane Washington, who could easily key a Final Four run.
However, they'd likely have to get past Arkansas (+700), which won its first nine games and has claimed 12 of 14 since a midseason swoon. The Hogs' offense has reached a new level as Moses Moody - who's recorded three 28-point outings in his last four games - has turned it on. This is a price worth paying.
Which lower seeds can make a run?
Much of the attention in this region will probably fall on Colgate (+5000), which threatened 2-seed Tennessee in 2019 and has lost just one game this season. I'm not buying it. This year's group plays a similar style to first-round opponent Arkansas, though the Hogs execute at a higher level. Even if the Raiders get hot, don't expect it to carry to the second or third round.
Instead, I'm eyeing Winthrop (+4000), which was a two-point loss to UNC Asheville away from joining Gonzaga as an undefeated hopeful. Pat Kelsey's group is relentless in transition and attacks the boards on both ends with reckless abandon.
A first-round matchup against Villanova was the best possible scenario for Winthrop. The team could also get the best of a Purdue squad that allows too many easy looks outside. Don't be surprised to see the Eagles flying to the Sweet 16 or beyond if everything breaks right.
What teams should you avoid?
Is it too easy to say Villanova (+800)? The Wildcats opened the year with an 11-1 record before losing five of their final 10 games. Now they enter the tournament without Collin Gillespie or Justin Moore, the best guards and facilitators for a team dependent on ball security and outside shooting. Even at these odds, I'm staying away.
I'm also not buying the relatively short odds on Wisconsin (+1000) or North Carolina (+1100), which face off in the first round for the right to play Baylor. Both teams have enough size inside to make life difficult for the Bears, but neither program makes enough shots or forces enough turnovers to keep pace with Jared Butler and Co.
If you're determined to bet a Baylor upset in the second round, you're better off fading the Bears on the moneyline than trying to guess which of these two clubs reaches the second round - to say nothing of the unlikely Final Four run needed to cash at these odds.
Best bet to win the South Region
Ohio State +400
Few teams have been challenged like Ohio State, which could've been a No. 1 seed in any other year. Instead, the team is a dangerous No. 2 seed in a region full of flawed and inconsistent competition.
I'm tempted to pick Arkansas or even Texas Tech (+800), which has the defense and shotmaking to beat anyone on the right night. Yet this price is just right for the Buckeyes, who match up well with Baylor and carry more momentum into the tournament.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
