Conference tournament previews: Betting the Atlantic Sun, Patriot League

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Conference tournament season has arrived! While the major conferences finish regular seasons this week, mid-major conferences will begin tournaments in the coming days.

Most mid-major leagues are one-bid conferences, meaning the conference tournament winner punches a prized ticket to the NCAA Tournament.

The Atlantic Sun tips off Monday night, the first conference tournament to get underway.

The Atlantic Sun and Patriot League have clear-cut favorites to win their respective conferences. Let's scroll down the oddsboard to see who could upset the favorite and which early-round matchup to target.

To help us navigate some of the lesser-known teams in college hoops, we'll use shotquality.com's metrics to help assess how good teams are at getting and preventing good shots (three-pointers and rim attempts).

Atlantic Sun (March 4)

Early-round bet

First round: (8) Queens NC vs. (7) Florida Gulf Coast (-4, O/U 154.5)

Florida Gulf Coast knocked off Queens, 90-81, nine days ago at home. Although Queens beat FGCU in January during a tough stretch for the Eagles, this is a more favorable matchup for FGCU.

The Eagles are deeper, more efficient offensively, and the better shooting club. Assuming Queens doesn't uncharacteristically catch fire from long range, FGCU should coast to an easy win and advance to the quarterfinals.

Pick: FGCU -4

Lipscomb (+275)

Lipscomb is one of the Atlantic Sun's hottest teams, winning seven of its final eight regular-season games. The Bisons' one loss was to North Alabama, who they play in the quarterfinals Tuesday. Lipscomb's expected to be 8-point favorites.

It'll likely face Stetson in the semifinals and Eastern Kentucky in the championship. Lipscomb handily defeated Eastern Kentucky, 81-67, to close out the regular season Friday. Although the Bisons lost to Stetson in January, Lipscomb has significantly improved offensively in the last month.

The Bisons have the conference's best AdjOFF, and their two toughest competitors - Stetson and Eastern Kentucky - are due for some negative regression, according to ShotQuality.com's luck record.

Patriot League (March 5)

Early-round bet

Second round: (6) Lehigh vs. (3) Lafayette

(Projected line: Lafayette -1)

Lehigh already beat Lafayette twice this season, at home on Feb. 10 and on the road on Feb. 24. Lafayette had a promising start to conference play but struggled over the last month, dropping its final four regular-season contests.

The Leopards are projected to be a slight favorite because they're playing at home. However, home-court advantage in the Patriot League isn't a difference-maker. The metrics favor Lehigh, which has the best adjDEF, third-best adjOFF, and fifth-best R3 rate. Lafayette ranks last in the Patriot League in adjOFF and R3 rate.

Pick: Lehigh +1

Boston University +600

Colgate has sat on the Patriot League throne for the past few seasons, winning the last three conference tournaments and four of the previous five.

The Raiders are heavy favorites again (70% implied probability) to earn a bid to the Big Dance after a 16-2 conference record (four teams tied for second place with a 10-8 mark).

Picking against Colgate may prove foolish, but there's no value in betting on a -250 favorite (bet $10 to win $4).

Despite the Raiders' impressive record, they haven't steamrolled through the Patriot League competition. Colgate has shown it's susceptible to losses, like when American narrowly defeated the Raiders on Feb. 25. Lafayette and Lehigh came close to knocking them off in the season's final weeks, and Lafayette beat Colgate in early January.

Instead of rolling with the favorite, let's back the hottest team entering the tournament: Boston University.

The Terriers won five straight to close the regular season, including victories over Lehigh and American. Boston University is on the opposite side of Colgate's bracket. It wouldn't face the Raiders until the championship.

Assuming the Terriers advance to the semifinals, they'll play either Lafayette or Lehigh, whom they're a combined 3-1 against.

If Boston University makes the championship, its moneyline odds will be much shorter than +600. The Terriers are worth a dabble now.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.