March Madness futures: Buzzer-beaters, Sweet 16, Final Four, and more picks

The wait for the greatest sporting event of the year is over. We'll have plenty of bets for the games throughout the weekend, but sometimes it's even more exciting to place pre-tournament wagers. Here are eight futures bets to consider before the Round of 64 tips off.

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Under 8.5 total cumulative seeds to reach Final Four (-125)

Get out the chalkboard! Maybe I'm relying too much on last year's tournament as a predictor when it could be an outlier, but I'm forecasting another chalky tournament. Arizona, Michigan, and Duke are all historically great teams that should earn Final Four trips. While a 2- or 3-seed could sneak in, the under would still hit.

Before the 2025 tournament, the last time the combined Final Four seeds equaled less than eight was in 2009. If history is any indication, the over is the play. But college basketball is in a new era, nudging us to ignore historical trends.

Arizona or Michigan over the field (+190)

Arizona, Michigan, or Duke is going to win the national title. Every metric indicates those three teams are much better than everyone else, and that usually results in a national title. I'm comfortable leaving Duke with the field because of injury concerns and its difficult route through the East Region.

Michigan State to reach Elite Eight (+220)

For a team that's ranked ninth on KenPom and has one of the best floor generals in the country in Jeremy Fears Jr., Michigan State is flying completely under the radar. That's likely because it was placed in a tough region. However, Michigan State has a relatively smooth path to the Elite Eight. Any opponent it can meet in the first three rounds - Louisville, UConn, UCLA, etc. - has worse efficiency metrics than the Spartans. Don't be surprised when Tom Izzo takes his group on another March run.

Virginia to reach Elite Eight (+280)

While Virginia deserves credit for its success - it's ranked 13th on KenPom and won 13 of its last 15 games (both losses were to Duke) - this bet has more to do with the Cavaliers' path. Virginia should be in no danger of an upset from 14-seed Wright State and would then likely play a vulnerable Tennessee group in the Round of 32. You'll be lucky you took this when the Cavaliers are in the Sweet 16. Their inside-outside scoring attack and deep bench can defeat Iowa State at that stage of the tourney, especially considering Virginia ranks in the top 30 nationally in threes made per game while Iowa State struggles to defend the arc.

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Illinois to win the South Region (+325)

Illinois has the second-best offense on KenPom and a respectable defense, positioning the team for a Final Four run. Stars are made in March, and guard Keaton Wagler is one of the nation's best freshmen. But he's not a one-man show: The Fighting Illini have five players averaging double figures.

Not only do the Illini possess the talent, coaching, and scoring necessary for a Final Four trip, but they're also in a manageable region. No. 2 Houston relies on more freshmen than usual and has showcased its inconsistency over the last month. No. 1 seed Florida's guards might not be reliable enough to win back-to-back titles. There's an opening for 3-seed Illinois.

Akron to reach Sweet 16 (+1300)

Akron ranks in the top 15 nationally in points and made threes per game. The team won 19 of its last 20 games and faces an injured Texas Tech squad in the opening round. The Zips can compete with anyone if they get hot from three.

If Akron advances, it'll play Alabama, which will likely be without recently arrested second-leading scorer Aden Holloway. The Zips lack size, but neither Texas Tech nor Alabama has the interior presence to bully them inside.

McNeese to reach Sweet 16 (+1800)

McNeese consistently wins the possession battle with the best turnover margin in the nation. The Cowboys play at a slow pace and use defensive pressure to force turnovers, leading to plenty of transition points. That's a solid formula for a less talented team to upset respectable high-major programs. Vanderbilt, the Cowboys' Round of 64 opponent, and Nebraska, their potential Round of 32 opponent, are both among the top teams in the country in turnovers per game.

Over 0.5 game-winning buzzer-beaters in the tournament (+100)

There have been 47 buzzer-beaters (defined as a shot to take the lead as time expires) since 1944, and at least one in six of the last nine tournaments. Based on history, the chances of it happening again this year are greater than the implied probability presented by the odds. Plus, buzzer-beaters are fun to root for and a classic part of the March Madness experience.

Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more basketball coverage.

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