This is the final season of Big Ten football as we know it. Next year, USC and UCLA will join to create a 16-team conference, and the abandonment of divisions will create a more level playing field.
But, for one last time, divisions dictate schedules and play a major role in determining a team's over/under win total on the season. I broke down the best win total bets from a conference that could have two teams represented in the College Football Playoff for the second consecutive season.
Big Ten win totals
| Team | Win Total |
|---|---|
| Ohio State | 10.5 |
| Michigan | 10.5 |
| Penn State | 9.5 |
| Wisconsin | 8.5 |
| Iowa | 8 |
| Maryland | 7 |
| Minnesota | 7 |
| Illinois | 6.5 |
| Nebraska | 6 |
| Purdue | 5.5 |
| Michigan State | 5.5 |
| Indiana | 3.5 |
| Northwestern | 3.5 |
| Rutgers | 3.5 |
Penn State over 9.5 wins
Penn State has won 10 or more games in four of the last six seasons - excluding the 2020 COVID season.
It has done that with mediocre quarterback play the last four seasons. Despite Sean Clifford breaking almost every quarterback record at Penn State - including wins, passing yards, completions, passing touchdowns, and more - he never elevated Penn State to the best of the best in the beast that is the Big Ten East.
Many fans called for his benching last season with a talented freshman backup in the picture, but coach James Franklin let Clifford finish his sixth season, which culminated in a Rose Bowl win.
With Clifford gone, Drew Allar has the keys to the offense in hopes of bringing Franklin to his first College Football Playoff appearance in 10 years in Happy Valley.
Allar's potential, combined with an elite running game led by 1,000-yard rusher Nick Singleton, gives Penn State a chance to compete for the Big Ten title this season, something it hasn't won since 2016.
Given the talent and schedule, it's hard to see a scenario where Penn State doesn't get to 10 wins, like it did last season. Franklin has dominated everyone in the Big Ten except two teams: Michigan and Ohio State.
Franklin is 4-14 against Michigan and Ohio State, and 45-16 against everyone else in the conference.
Michigan and Ohio State have better odds to win the Big Ten at +125 and +110, respectively, than Penn State does at +600. But if there's any Penn State team that can upset the Midwest rivals, it's this one.
Even if Penn State falls to Michigan and Ohio State yet again, the path to 10 wins is an easy one. Penn State is a projected favorite by at least nine points in every game except for those against Michigan and Ohio State, according to VSiN. Penn State didn't just go 10-2 last season, it was a covering machine, finishing 9-3-1 against the spread.
Pick: Over 9.5 wins -145 (playable to -160)
Wisconsin over 8.5 wins
Wisconsin's identity of ground-and-pound offensive football will look a bit different this season. Luke Fickell left Cincinnati to take over Wisconsin in November.
One of Fickell's first tasks as coach was signing Tanner Mordecai, a talented quarterback who threw for over 7,000 yards and 72 touchdowns at SMU the last two seasons.
Fickell is reinventing the Badgers' attack after they ranked 11th in the Big Ten in passing offense last season.
While Wisconsin's offense should be fruitful, this win total is about the schedule. Wisconsin plays in the Big Ten West, a significantly weaker division than the Big Ten East, where the top three favorites to win the conference reside.
Wisconsin lucked out with its Big Ten East pairings. Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Maryland have the four best odds to win the East, and the Badgers only have to play Ohio State. Their second East opponent is Indiana, which is projected to finish last in the division.
Wisconsin is the favorite to win the West division at +125. It'll play Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota, all of which are worthy contenders, but Wisconsin is a projected favorite in every game except one against Ohio State. It'd be surprising if Wisconsin gets to 11 wins, but earning at least nine wins is more than likely for a revived and lively Badgers program.
Pick: Over 8.5 wins -135 (playable to -155)
Maryland over 7 wins
Coach Mike Locksley has completely turned around the Maryland football program. When Locksley took over in 2019, the Terps hadn't had a winning season since 2014. Now, they've had two straight.
Maryland continues to climb the Big Ten ladder. In 2021, Maryland won six regular-season games, and last year it won seven. But the win total market isn't adjusting properly. Maryland hit the over on 5.5 wins in 2021 and 6.5 in 2022.
The Terps' ascension is due to exceptional quarterback play from Taulia Tagovailoa, who's back for another season.
Maryland reached back-to-back bowl games while going a combined 0-6 against Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State. Unfortunately for the Terps, they play in the Big Ten East and have to face those three teams once again this fall.
Maryland is knocking on the door of an upset against the Big Ten's best. It had chances to win late in the fourth quarter against Michigan and Ohio State last season, but its upset bids ultimately fell short. Even if those are three losses this season, the path to at least seven wins is attainable.
Maryland is a projected favorite in every other game. It has a cakewalk of a nonconference schedule and doesn't play Wisconsin or Iowa - the two favorites in the Big Ten West.
As long as the Terps can keep Tagovailoa healthy, they'll win at least seven games. It's possible Maryland lands on seven wins again, resulting in a push. Certain books are offering over 7.5 wins for even money, which could be worth a dabble.
Pick: Over 7 wins -130 (playable to -150)
Northwestern under 3.5 wins
This win total was confusing even before Northwestern fired its coach weeks before players report for training camp due to hazing incidents and a reportedly toxic culture within the program.
Northwestern's roster is horrible and only one year removed from a one-win season. Couple a lack of talent with distractions and an unstable coaching staff and this season is doomed to be as ugly as the purple it reps.
Northwestern has an easy nonconference schedule, so while it should earn wins over Howard and UTEP, it likely won't be favored in any other game all season.
Even if the Wildcats upset a Big Ten team and win a conference game, that still only gets them to three wins. Finding that fourth win will be as challenging as finding the right coach to turn this train wreck around.
Despite shorter odds than other win totals, it's still worth a bet, but I wouldn't play it further than -160.
Pick: Under 3.5 wins -160
