After a down Week 5 slate, Saturday's schedule is loaded with high-end matchups. Will Georgia beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa? Can Oklahoma figure out its offensive woes in the Red River Rivalry? Let's break it down.
Here are our picks and favorite bets against the spread.
👉 Check out all college football Week 6 lines on theScore Bet
Our trio of betting writers - Brenden Deeg, Dane Belbeck, and Eric Patterson - will make picks against the spread for the week's biggest games all season.
Brenden Deeg breaks down a few of this week's marquee matchups, adding his own analysis and insights. He also identifies three hidden gems the public may be overlooking.
Game time - 3:30 p.m. ET
🏈 Bet: Texas (-7.5)
The Red River Rivalry has been pretty one-sided recently, with Texas winning the last two matchups by a combined score of 57-9.
Although Oklahoma's stout defense might prevent a blowout, I think this is a disaster matchup for its offense. The Sooners' minus-32.8 total offensive EPA sits 125th in the FBS heading into Week 6, while quarterback John Mateer ranks 85th in EPA/dropback through four games. The 22-year-old has been a disaster in his second season as Oklahoma's starting signal-caller, already turning the ball over six times - 10th most in the country.
The Sooners' offensive line is also allowing a 38.6% pressure rate, the sixth-highest mark in the Power 4. To make matters worse for Oklahoma, star offensive tackle Michael Fasusi is expected to miss his fourth straight game, which means Colin Simmons and Texas' front should tee off. The Longhorns' offense will put up enough points to cover this spread, and right now, I can't trust the Sooners' offense. 👉 Add Texas to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
Game time - 3:30 p.m.
🏈 Bet: Ole Miss (-8.5)
Ole Miss has been hammered by injuries this year, but it should get a boost Saturday with star running back Kewan Lacy expected to return from a shoulder issue.
This is a great opportunity for Lacy and the Rebels' rushing attack to get on track before a tough slate of upcoming games. This season, Vanderbilt's defense has already allowed 17 explosive runs and ranks 94th in EPA/designed rush. The weather report is also calling for a rainy, windy afternoon in Nashville, which favors Ole Miss with Lacy back in the lineup.
Freshman quarterback Jared Curtis is projected to start for the Commodores after missing last week's game against Georgia with an undisclosed injury. However, I don't think Vanderbilt's offense will take advantage of Ole Miss' pass defense, as I expect head coach Pete Golding to turn things around defensively after the team's bye week.
A rested Trinidad Chambliss and Lacy against this shaky defense is a spot I'll jump on. 👉 Add Ole Miss to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
Game time - 7:30 p.m.
🏈 Bet: Georgia (+2.5)
The weather could be a huge factor in this game, as Hurricane Isaias is expected to bring heavy rain and wind Saturday morning that could last into the night. However, this SEC tilt is reportedly on track to kick off as scheduled.
Quarterback Keelon Russell's ability to escape the pocket could give Alabama a slight edge if the weather plays a role, but I trust Georgia's ground game more here. Nate Frazier, one of the nation's best rushers, is off the injury report after barely playing last week, and the Bulldogs' offense has allowed just 12 tackles for loss this season. Expect Georgia to consistently move the ball and limit the Crimson Tide's defensive disruptions.
Russell has been incredible in his first year as the starting quarterback, but this will be his first test against a great defense. One notable area for improvement is his performance under pressure, as he's completing just 60% of his throws against the blitz this year, ranking 80th among all signal-callers, according to TruMedia. Russell should expect to be under duress throughout Saturday's contest, with Georgia sending five-plus rushers at a 55% clip this season, the eighth-highest rate in the country.
Kirby Smart is also an elite defensive mind who will create a solid game plan against Russell. Led by Ellis Robinson IV, the Bulldogs' secondary is incredible and should give Alabama's wideouts fits all night. With Gunner Stockton's ability to avoid turnovers (only six interceptions since the start of 2025), I lean toward Georgia in what should be a wire-to-wire contest. 👉 Add Georgia to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
Game time - 3:30 p.m.
🏈 Bet: Toledo (-20.5)
Toledo quarterback John Alan Richter has been on fire to start the season, throwing for 1,362 yards, 13 touchdowns, and just one interception through five games. The junior ranks 16th in the nation in EPA/dropback and will get a favorable home matchup this weekend.
Buffalo's pass defense has been atrocious this year, sitting 118th in the country in total EPA allowed on dropbacks. I also don't see how a Bulls offense that ranks dead last in yards per play (4.3) among all FBS programs can put up enough points to keep this game within three touchdowns.
Buffalo is one of the worst teams in the nation right now and is 1-4 against the spread this campaign. The Glass Bowl is a very tough place to play, and Toledo should roll at home. 👉 Add Toledo to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
Game time - 6 p.m.
🏈 Bet: Oregon State (-15.5)
If you haven't been following what new head coach JaMarcus Shephard is doing at Oregon State, you should pay attention. The Beavers' offense is must-see TV right now: quarterback Braden Atkinson leads the country in passing yards, while freshman wide receiver Jesse Legree trails only Jeremiah Smith in receiving yards. The unit ranks 11th in EPA/play and averages a whopping 7.3 yards per play, good for eighth in the FBS.
Meanwhile, San Diego State is battling a mumps outbreak and was without 10 opening-day starters last week. The Aztecs ultimately beat Texas State, but their defense allowed 565 yards and now has to travel to face this red-hot Oregon State squad.
The Beavers are one of just four schools to be 5-0 against the spread this year. I took them last week, and they covered with ease. I'll keep riding them until proven otherwise. 👉 Add Oregon State to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
Game time - 8 p.m.
🏈 Bet: Minnesota (-2.5)
Both teams are coming off massive upset wins in Week 5, but I think one was way more impressive than the other.
Though Purdue beat Illinois as 9.5-point underdogs, the Fighting Illini are in shambles and fired their defensive coordinator a week before the game. Despite the win, the Boilermakers rank 114th in line-of-scrimmage net EPA and have an ugly 50% success rate on defense.
On the other side, I love what I'm seeing from P.J. Fleck and Minnesota. The Golden Gophers have ripped off back-to-back wins over Washington and Michigan, and their defense has been playing out of its mind. Their ground attack has also found life in recent weeks and should dominate this Purdue front seven, which ranks 131st in EPA/designed rush. I like Minnesota to keep it rolling and cover this small number. 👉 Add Minnesota to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
US: Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET; Hope is here. Call (800)-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org for 24/7 support (MA); Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
CA: Please play responsibly. AB (18+) & ON (19+) only. If gambling is affecting your mental health or well-being, 211 Alberta is here to help. Call or text 211 or visit ab.211.ca (AB). Call ConnexOntario at 1-866-531-2600. Text us at 247247 or chat with us at www.connexontario.ca (ON).
