MNF betting preview: Chiefs' undefeated record on line vs. reeling Bucs

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

The Chiefs' quest to remain undefeated continues on Monday Night Football against the struggling Buccaneers, who have lost three of their last four after a 3-1 start.

Kansas City's defense has carried the team to a 7-0 mark as Patrick Mahomes' usual brilliance has tapered off. Turnovers have plagued Mahomes this season, and a below-average passer rating has hurt his MVP bid. (He's currently the fourth favorite at +750.) But the three-time Super Bowl champ remains the NFL's best fourth-quarter signal-caller. Mahomes' late-game playmaking and the third-best scoring defense have the Chiefs as favorites to win a third straight Super Bowl. They're +1200 to become the first team to go undefeated since the 2007 Patriots.

Meanwhile, the Bucs have dropped to 4-4 and are two games back of the NFC South lead despite impressing early on. Tampa Bay's defense has been disastrous, allowing the third-most yards (387) and fifth-most points per game (26.6).

The Buccaneers are third in the league in scoring (29.4 points per game), but they've surrendered at least 30 points in their last three losses. Although they often successfully stop the run, the Bucs allow a whopping 255 passing yards per contest.

This is as good an opportunity as any for the Chiefs' offense to hit its stride early.

Key trends

• The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS, while the Buccaneers are 4-4.
• The over has hit in six of the Bucs' eight games
• Mahomes is a career 19-24-1 as a favorite of more than a touchdown.
• Mahomes is 3-0 ATS in night games this season and 27-18-1 ATS in his career.
• Baker Mayfield is 1-6 straight up and ATS on Monday Night Football in his career.
• Eight of the 11 Monday night games this year have exceeded the total.

Insights

Public bettors and sharp bettors are split: The majority of tickets are on the Bucs to cover, but most of the money is on the Chiefs to cover. Predictably, 74% of bets and 87% of the handle is on the over, which coincides with the above trends.

Best bet - Bucs +9

The Chiefs' offense should score frequently against the Buccaneers' porous defense, but Tampa Bay's attack can keep up. Kansas City's defensive strength is stopping the run, but the Bucs like to air it out with Mayfield. They average the second-most passing yards per game, so they'll move the ball against a mediocre pass defense.

After a rough October, the Bucs should show their desperation as they try to stay alive in the NFC South race. Five of the Chiefs' seven wins have been within one score. Tampa Bay won't win but will keep it within the number.

Players to watch

Patrick Mahomes over 249.5 passing yards

As previously noted, the Buccaneers' passing defense is abysmal. That should lead to the Chiefs throwing the ball more than usual and ultimately Mahomes carving up Tampa Bay's defense. He's thrown for over 250 yards in two of his last three games.

Patrick Mahomes under 0.5 interceptions thrown

Mahomes has been a turnover machine, throwing at least one pick in every game this season. But the streak will end Monday night. The Bucs don't force interceptions at a high rate, and their poor pass defense won't confuse Mahomes with disguised coverages.

Baker Mayfield over 224.5 passing yards

The Bucs will throw the ball repeatedly if they're down. The Chiefs' pass defense isn't nearly as dominant as their run defense. Mayfield has thrown for at least 300 yards in the last three contests and four of the past five. He's averaging 40 pass attempts over the past five games.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.