Week 15 betting preview: Lions host Bills in potential Super Bowl matchup

Only four weeks remain in the NFL's regular season, meaning it's crunch time for teams either looking to keep their playoff hopes alive or already jockeying for playoff seeding.

Let's dive in.

Sunday 4 p.m. ET slate

The Battle of Pennsylvania features two division-leading teams, as the Pittsburgh Steelers take their 10-3 record across the state to face the 11-2 Philadelphia Eagles. Both teams will be looking to improve their playoff seeding.

Case for the Steelers

• The Steelers limit opposing teams to the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (91.5) and have the talent to make things tough for Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley.
• Pittsburgh is in a far more competitive playoff race, whereas the Eagles have the NFC East locked up and are only fighting for the No. 1 seed in the conference.

Case for the Eagles

• The Eagles narrowly escaped with a win over the Panthers and should rebound against a much more talented Steelers team.
• They average 391 yards per game on offense (fourth highest) and limit opposing teams to only 305.3 yards per game (fewest). You could argue the Eagles are the most well-rounded team in the NFL.

Key trends

• The Steelers are 10-3 ATS, tied for the best record in the league. They are also 5-0 as underdogs.
• Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS on the road.
• The Eagles are 8-5 ATS and are 4-1 over their last five. However, they are only 1-4 ATS at home.

Pick: Steelers +5.5

The Steelers have proven all year (and throughout Mike Tomlin's tenure) that you can trust them when they are underdogs. This game should be tightly contested and has a total of only 42.5. It's always wise to side with the underdog in a game that may not feature 40 points scored.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers head west to take on the Los Angeles Chargers in a showdown between two playoff teams. The Bucs lead the NFC South at 7-6, while the Chargers are in the thick of the AFC wild-card race at 8-5.

Case for the Buccaneers

• The Bucs are winners of three straight after knocking off the New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, and Las Vegas Raiders in succession. The Chargers are a step up in class, but Tampa beat the Eagles and Detroit Lions this season, proving it's capable against the league's better teams.

Case for the Chargers

• The Chargers are a top-10 team in the league per defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA).
• Their two most recent losses were on a last-second field goal to the Kansas City Chiefs and in a neck-and-neck battle with the Baltimore Ravens. They've handled teams of the Bucs' quality all season.

Key trends

• The Chargers are 9-4 ATS overall, 4-2 at home, and 7-1 as the favorite.
• Tampa Bay is 8-5 ATS overall, 4-2 on the road, and 4-3 as the underdog.
• L.A. covered seven of its last eight games. Tampa covered four of its last five games. Both teams are exceeding expectations this season and have impressive ATS records as a result.

Pick: Chargers -3

We'll side with the Chargers in this one, hoping this spread stays at three points and doesn't move to 3.5. The Chargers are the better team per DVOA by a decent margin and are only being asked to win by three points over a team traveling across the country.

Super Bowl preview, anyone?

The Bills head to the Motor City for a date with the NFC-leading Lions. Both teams have punched their tickets to the playoffs, but there's still a lot at stake in this matchup, especially for Josh Allen and Jared Goff, who can strengthen their MVP cases with a win.

Case for the Bills

• The Bills are rarely underdogs, and any time you can get points with Allen, it's an opportunity to place a good bet.
• Buffalo's offense is one of the few that can keep up with Detroit's and has a defense limiting opposing teams to 20.6 points per game.

Case for the Lions

• The Lions are the league's best team and are incredible at covering spreads. They are 46-21 ATS since Dan Campbell was hired in 2021.
• They have a sizeable rest advantage after beating the Green Bay Packers last Thursday night whereas the Bills played in a shootout on the road in L.A. and likely got home late Sunday night.

Key trends

• The Lions are 9-4 ATS overall, 8-4 as the favorite, but only 4-3 at home. They are 2-3 ATS over their last five.
• The Bills are 8-5 ATS and covered three straight before losing to the Rams last week.
• The over hit in four of the past five Bills games, but the under hit in four of the past six Lions tilts. This game has a total of 53.5, the highest of the week and one of the highest this season.

Pick: Lions -2.5

These two teams are evenly matched on offense (slight edge to the Lions), but the Lions' defense, despite its slew of injuries, is a better unit than the Bills' D. The Rams put up 44 points on Buffalo last week, exposing weaknesses that the Lions can exploit.

Detroit possesses a lethal two-headed monster at tailback with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery and has the receiving weapons to beat teams through the air. Trust in Campbell's defense to slow down Allen just enough to cover the 2.5 points.

Sunday Night Football

The Packers head to Seattle in the Sunday nighter for a meeting with the NFC West-leading Seahawks. As it stands right now, these two teams are set to meet again in the wild-card round.

Case for the Packers

• The Packers rank third in DVOA, behind only the Lions and Ravens.
• Their only losses have come to the Lions, Eagles, and Minnesota Vikings, three of the best teams in the NFC and all three much better than the Seahawks.

Case for the Seahawks

• Backing the Seahawks as a home underdog is never a bad idea, especially at this time of the year.
• They've won four straight after their Week 10 bye, largely because of their defense. Seattle has limited opponents to 15.5 points per game over its last four.

Key trends

• Both teams are hovering around .500 ATS. Seattle is 6-6-1 and Green Bay is 7-6. However, the Seahawks are only 2-5 ATS at home.
• The Packers have covered three straight games after failing to cover in four consecutive contests.
• The Seahawks have covered in four straight games, three of those against NFC opponents.

Pick: Packers -2.5

By the numbers, the Packers are the far superior team. Asking them to only win by a field goal doesn't seem like a big ask.

Green Bay has a top-10 rushing attack, while Seattle struggles to slow teams down on the ground. The Seahawks give up 4.7 yards per rush (eighth highest in the league) and 126.5 yards per game (12th highest). Expect the Packers to control the game through their rushing attack and put this game out of reach.