The Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots made huge splashes on Monday, with the Rams acquiring two-time Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett and the Patriots adding wide receiver A.J. Brown.
Garrett bolsters a loaded Rams roster that was already strong enough to be priced as the Super Bowl favorite on theScore Bet. And Brown joins last year's Super Bowl losers to give Drake Maye a true No. 1 wideout.
While the moves may be massive on paper and on the field, they didn't produce a seismic shift in the Super Bowl odds.
The Rams strengthened their position as the favorites, moving from +750 to +600. That works out to an increased win probability of only 2.5%.
Los Angeles' chances of winning the NFC, its division, and making the playoffs all improved, but not as dramatically as some may have expected after landing the best defensive player in the league.
The Rams moved from -320 to -425 to make the playoffs (81% implied probability) and from +150 to +105 (48.8%) to win the strong NFC West. The Rams had a 12-5 record last year, and oddsmakers and the betting market already viewed them as legitimate title contenders before they acquired Garrett.
Interestingly enough, Matthew Stafford may be the biggest winner from the Garrett trade. Stafford's odds of winning back-to-back MVPs shortened from +1500 to +1100.
Meanwhile, the Patriots' odds didn't change after getting Brown from the Philadelphia Eagles.
This trade has been rumored for a while and was expected to occur June 1, the first day NFL teams are allowed to spread dead money over the next two years. New England's futures odds already accounted for Brown joining the Patriots. Plus, at this stage of his career, Brown isn't nearly as big a difference-maker on offense as Garrett is on defense.
The Patriots remain the second favorite behind the Buffalo Bills to win the AFC East at +130 and are +1600 to return to - and win - the Super Bowl.
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