7-2-11-12.
That was the combination of pingpong ball numbers that the NHL's draft lottery machine spit out Tuesday night to award the Maple Leafs the first overall pick.
There truly wasn't a more chaotic outcome among the 11 possibilities.
Toronto, the regular season's 28th-place team, entered the lottery with 8.5% odds of being handed the No. 1 pick. It had unveiled a polarizing management duo - general manager John Chayka and senior executive adviser Mats Sundin - at a memorable press conference less than 24 hours earlier.
This year's pick will be the third No. 1 selection in franchise history. The previous two? Franchise icons Wendel Clark (1985) and Auston Matthews (2016).
Who's in the hunt to go first overall?
Chayka called picking first overall a "monumental type of opportunity" during his post-lottery media availability. The Leafs' new leader of hockey operations then said he couldn't provide useful commentary on the club's options on draft day because, up until this week, he'd been out of the league for six years.
"We haven't had scouting meetings," Chayka told reporters.
Fair enough.
The Leafs will be debating over a handful of players in those upcoming meetings.
Gavin McKenna
McKenna, a dynamic forward born in Yukon Territory, was the consensus No. 1 prospect heading into the season and remains top dog seven weeks shy of the draft. His stock dipped early due to concerns over his work rate away from the puck and willingness to engage in physical battles. Those issues mostly faded into the background as McKenna adjusted to life as an NCAA freshman and piled up points.
The 18-year-old finished with 15 goals and 36 assists for 51 points in 35 games for Penn State after dominating the WHL for three seasons (244 points in 133 games for the Medicine Hat Tigers). McKenna's a creative, pass-first winger who's drawn comparisons to Nikita Kucherov and Patrick Kane due to a mixture of exceptional puck skills, elite hockey IQ, and nifty skating.
McKenna's legal troubles haven't materially impacted his standing in NHL circles. Scouts believe he has the highest ceiling in the class and very well could blossom into a point-producing top-line forward who runs an efficient power play. The 5-foot-11, 170-pounder's on-ice flair will sell plenty of jerseys.
Ivar Stenberg
Stenberg, another winger, is a two-way forward with playmaking chops and a wicked shot. A detail-oriented player, he competes incredibly hard in all three zones and is notably unafraid of wading into the high-danger areas of the ice.
Stenberg, whose older brother Otto plays for the Blues, has spent his entire career in the Swedish system. He blew scouts away this season while playing a prominent role for Frolunda of the SHL. Stenberg's 33 points in 43 games were the most by an 18-year-old SHLer since 1998-99. He also led Sweden to a gold medal at the 2026 world juniors, collecting 10 points along the way.
Stenberg, who's listed at 5-foot-11 and 183 pounds, is easier to project than McKenna because he's excelled in one of the best pro leagues in the world. Yet it's extremely unlikely that he'll ever be as flashy or productive as his Canadian counterpart. If McKenna's the sexy option, Stenberg's the fair but safe one.
Multiple defensemen
While a couple of other forwards are theoretically in the mix for first overall, McKenna and Stenberg are the clear front-runners. If for some reason the Leafs aren't blown away by either of them, there are a few intriguing defensemen to consider in what's a blue-liner-heavy class. It's also important to remember that NHL teams tend to prefer centers and defensemen over wingers if all else is equal. The Leafs, for one, are desperate for a franchise cornerstone on the back end.
Chase Reid: Poised, right-shooting offensive dynamo out of the OHL.
Keaton Verhoeff: Large, smart, two-way defenseman who played collegiately at North Dakota.
Carson Carels: Strong-skating, high-compete D-man out of the WHL.
Is Toronto suddenly on a different timeline?
Winning the draft lottery is a franchise-altering event. Full stop. The past decade is proof - the Leafs' orbit revolves around Matthews, and rightfully so.
Now, it's possible the player Toronto selects never develops into a Matthews-level contributor in the NHL; after all, not all No. 1 picks live up to the hype. But there's arguably an even greater chance McKenna/Stenberg reaches the superstar tier and thus defines the next era of Leafs hockey.
In that sense, Toronto has officially started a new timeline. One filled with hope.
Is this timeline going to be sped up in any significant way following the lottery win, though? Probably not, given the amount of work ahead for Chayka.
Chayka already had plans to undergo a retool (versus rebuilding the roster from scratch). The ex-Coyotes GM now has one important lineup spot - likely up front - filled for the foreseeable future, which is a massive luxury. But Toronto's problems run deep, extending far beyond a top-six left winger, and Chayka isn't exactly swimming in tradeable prospects or draft capital.
The Leafs finished 16th in goals for and 31st in goals against in 2025-26, their first season in 10 years without star winger Mitch Marner and second with coach Craig Berube behind the bench. It was a disastrous six months off the ice (cultural problems, poor asset management by former GM Brad Treliving) and on it (terrible underlying numbers to match the horrendous results).
The aging roster needs a makeover, starting with a full overhaul of the blue line. Matthews and William Nylander are presumably the lone untouchables, though forwards Matthew Knies and Easton Cowan and goalies Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll surely won't be easy pieces to acquire.
What the No. 1 pick does best (beyond provide a special player) is offer clarity. The Leafs don't have to react to other team's picks on draft day. Plus, the front office now knows what's going to happen with their next two first-round picks (2027 is off to Philadelphia to complete the Scott Laughton trade, while 2028's headed to Boston to complete the Brandon Carlo trade).
Both picks are reportedly unprotected, giving Chayka extra incentive to retool aggressively this offseason in order to challenge for a playoff spot in 2027.
What might all this mean for Matthews?
Matthews, the Original Six team's captain and best player, turns 29 in September. All he wants to do is win. He's advanced to the second round of the playoffs just twice in 10 seasons, dealt with significant injuries the past couple of years, and becomes eligible for a contract extension July 1, 2027.
In other words, with two seasons left on a four-year, $53-million deal, time is running out. On Tuesday morning, The Athletic's Chris Johnston wrote that Matthews "still isn't sure if he'll be back in Toronto in the fall," citing league sources. Matthews, Johnston continued, "wants to see a roster that has been meaningfully upgraded through trades and free agency."
Nobody expected Toronto to win the lottery a few hours later. It's clearly fantastic news for anybody associated with the Leafs, especially the players. Heck, McKenna could be a proper Marner replacement on Matthews' line.
That said, I'm told Matthews' situation hasn't changed one way or the other in the wake of the lottery win.
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter/X (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email ([email protected]).
