U.S. Open betting preview: Who can beat Scheffler at Oakmont?

Golf's toughest test is here.

The 2025 U.S. Open will be played at the iconic Oakmont Country Club, widely regarded as one of the most challenging courses in the world. A field of 156 players will descend on the Pittsburgh-area property with hopes of winning the season's third major, but only a few have a realistic chance.

The course

• 7,372 yards, par 70
• Designed by Henry Fownes in 1903, renovated by Gil Hanse in 2023
• Poa annua grass greens
• 5-inch rough throughout
• Heavily bunkered (168 total) are strategically placed along the fairways and greens, creating an extremely demanding tee-to-green course
• All of the holes have a gradual tilt toward the Pennsylvania Turnpike, which intersects the course but cannot be easily seen from the grounds

Past U.S. Open champions

2024: Bryson DeChambeau
2023: Wyndham Clark
2022: Matt Fitzpatrick
2021: Jon Rahm
2020: Bryson DeChambeau
2019: Gary Woodland
2018: Brooks Koepka
2017: Brooks Koepka

Past winners at Oakmont

2016: Dustin Johnson
2007: Angel Cabrera
1994: Ernie Els
1983: Larry Nelson
1973: Johnny Miller
1962: Jack Nicklaus
1953: Ben Hogan

The favorite

"If you're a premier ball-striker, you'll be licking your chops," Xander Schauffele said about Oakmont on Monday.

That means Scottie Scheffler should be salivating at his opportunity to win the U.S. Open. He's the best ball-striker in the world and is 25th in strokes gained: putting this season on the PGA TOUR.

Scheffler is in a class of his own on the course and the oddsboard, listed as the heavy +275 favorite at theScore Bet/ESPN Bet. He's won three of his last four starts - a run that includes the PGA Championship and the Memorial Tournament - and heads to Oakmont in better form than he displayed during his historic 2024 season.

The World No. 1 has acknowledged that unpredictable golf courses, especially when missing the fairway, can be his kryptonite. That could explain his struggles at last year's U.S. Open at Pinehurst and his inability to crack the top five at the Open Championship. Thankfully for Scheffler, the thick rough lining Oakmont's fairways won't be unpredictable; it'll simply be challenging to play from.

Scheffler will be incredibly tough to beat. If you're betting on the outright winner, you must decide if you want to swallow the short price on Scheffler or roll the dice on his top challengers.

The contenders

Given the test Oakmont will present this week, only three players have a legitimate chance at beating Scheffler. Even these golfers have holes in their games that may prevent them from winning the major, but at their best, they're the only ones who can go toe-to-toe with Scheffler.

Bryson DeChambeau is the top option to beat Scheffler. The defending champion and two-time U.S. Open winner was built for golf's toughest test. He has all the tools to survive 72 holes at a U.S. Open venue. DeChambeau's length off the tee gives him a massive advantage over a field likely to be missing as many fairways as he does, except he'll be playing his second shot 50 yards closer to the green than the field average. His power is second to none, giving him the best chance at hitting shots from the thick, five-inch rough. DeChambeau's a fantastic putter and knows how to scramble around U.S. Open greens. He's had a successful run in recent majors and should be in contention again.

Rory McIlroy's game has been off since he won the Masters, but things can change quickly when you're one of the most talented golfers ever to live. McIlroy has struggled off the tee since his driver was deemed nonconforming at the PGA Championship. He was abysmal at last week's Canadian Open, testing a new driver that failed to deliver results. However, he was spotted using a driver similar to the one he used at the Masters, which could be the spark that his game needs.

McIlroy's U.S. Open odds have drifted considerably since winning the Masters, so a buy-low situation may be developing. It's worth noting that McIlroy has finished inside the top 10 in six straight U.S. Opens, including back-to-back runner-up results.

Finally, Jon Rahm proved to everyone that his game hasn't suffered since joining LIV when he was the only player at the PGA Championship with a realistic chance of catching Scheffler. He ultimately came up short, but knowing that version of Rahm still exists is why he's one of three Scheffler contenders this week.

The Spaniard is a former U.S. Open winner and possesses all the qualities of a multi-time U.S. Open champion. If Rahm can package it all together through four rounds at Oakmont, he should have a good opportunity to win his third career major.

The next tier

We won't spend much time on this group because there's a roughly 50% chance the winner is one of the top four on the oddsboard. In fact, theScore bet is offering Scheffler, McIlroy, DeChambeau, and Rahm against the field at +100. That's not to say someone like Schauffele or Collin Morikawa can't win, but there isn't enough value in this range on any player to consider backing them in the outright market.

Schauffele is the obvious choice in this range, but he's not driving the ball straight enough to make him a consideration in the outright market. While he's launching it longer than ever off the tee, Schauffele is hitting only 52.86% of his fairways, a number likely to drop at Oakmont. He's also 139th in strokes gained: putting this season.

Shane Lowry or Sepp Straka are extremely accurate drivers and give you a nice discount on Morikawa, who boasts a similar game. Still, it's hard to imagine any of these players outclassing Scheffler on Sunday.

Pick

Bryson DeChambeau: To win (+750)

DeChambeau is the pick to outduel Scheffler.

Right now, it's easier to trust the captain of Crushers GC than it is McIlroy or Rahm. DeChambeau continues to prove it on the biggest stages, claiming five top-six finishes in his previous six major appearances, including his win at Pinehurst last year.

He conquered an extremely similar test when he won by six shots at Winged Foot in 2020, and he's a much better golfer nowadays. DeChambeau's well-rounded game has been on display in the last two Masters, and he'll face shots from uneven lies at Oakmont similar to those he's seen at Augusta National.

Backing DeChambeau at double the odds of Scheffler is a far easier pill to swallow. It's also the best way to maximize your winning potential while getting a Sunday sweat.