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MLB Tuesday best bets: Bats to shine in Cincinnati

Harry How / Getty Images Sport / Getty

We started the week on a positive note with our MLB best bets. The Astros plated six runs in the first inning and sailed to a first-five cover while we split our pitching props in Texas, giving us a profitable 2-1 night.

We'll look to build on it with three more plays for a full Tuesday card.

Dodgers (-190) @ Reds (+160)

Offense, offense, offense, and more offense. That's what I'm expecting when the Dodgers and Reds square off tonight at Great American Ballpark.

The Dodgers are as good as almost anybody with the bat in their hands. They rank first in walk rate, first in ISO, and third in wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season. They also slot second in fly-ball rate, which is important when playing in hot weather at a hitter-friendly ballpark. Such is the case tonight.

The Dodgers will also have the luxury of going up against a poor pitcher in Luke Weaver. He gives up a lot of runs, a lot of extra-base hits, and a lot of fly balls. I don't see things going too well for him against a lineup featuring Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Will Smith, and J.D. Martinez, who I'll get to later.

Los Angeles should be able to get to Weaver early and often in this game. The floor and ceiling are high for the Dodgers' offense.

The Reds should be able to contribute their fair share of runs as well. Tony Gonsolin hasn't pitched nearly as well as his counting stats suggest; in the past 30 days, he owns a 4.60 FIP, yet his ERA sits at 1.77. It's only a matter of time before regression comes his way.

This could be a good spot for that to happen. I've already touched on the hitter-friendly environment this game will take place. I should also note - for all the Reds' faults - Cincinnati has done a great job of getting the ball in the air of late.

Since May 1, the Reds slot fourth in the majors in fly-ball rate at home. If they continue to excel in that area, positive results should follow.

This game has real fireworks potential. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see this contest go well over the number.

Bet: Over 10.5 (-105)

J.D. Martinez over 1.5 total bases (-110)

Martinez is one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He's registered at least two total bases in 15 of the past 20 games, good for a 75% success rate.

He finds himself in a mouthwatering matchup against Weaver and the Reds. Weaver is an extra-base machine. Dinelson Lamet is the day's only projected starter who allows more extra-base hits per nine innings, while nobody fares worse in terms of preventing the long ball.

Weaver has it in him to concede a handful of extra-base hits each and every night, providing hitters the opportunity to get there with just one swing.

That may not be necessary for Martinez, who enters play with a .319 batting average and .435 wOBA against right-handed pitchers. He's one of the most potent righty hitters in the league, and Weaver (5.36 ERA, 5.39 FIP, 10.4% soft-contact rate) is clearly very exploitable.

Look for Martinez to have another productive night at the plate.

Tyler Anderson over 1.5 walks allowed (-135)

Anderson has a walk problem. A big one, at that. He's allowed at least two walks in nine of 10 starts this season and six in a row. He's conceded 17 walks during this streak, good for an average of just under three per game.

Anderson lacks strikeout prowess and the ability to put batters away when the opportunity presents itself. Clearly, that's been problematic, as his walk rate is just 3% lower than his strikeout rate on the year.

The Cubs are a team that can really take advantage of that. They rank third in walk rate this season and over the past couple of weeks. They're a very disciplined team that'll be happy to take the free passes handed to them.

Anderson has struggled with control all season long, and I don't see this as an opportune matchup to change that. Look for the Cubs to grind their way on base at least a couple of times against Anderson.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

MLB Tuesday best bets: Bats to shine in Cincinnati
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