Cooper Flagg will be selected with the first overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.
That's perhaps the only certainty ahead of Monday's draft lottery in Chicago, and for good reason.
Flagg, 18, had a stellar season at Duke and became one of four freshmen to win The Associated Press' men's national player of the year in the award's 64-year history.
He's a versatile 6-foot-9 talent who's both the youngest player in the draft and the most complete prospect courtesy of elite athleticism and top-tier playmaking skills. With a 7-foot-1 wingspan, Flagg could play multiple roles in the NBA and fits the profile of a franchise-altering star at the next level.
With the order of the top 14 picks to be determined Monday ahead of the first night of the draft on June 25 at Brooklyn's Barclays Center, let's look at where Flagg will most likely end up.
Who will draft Flagg 1st overall?
First, some math: To accurately predict which team might win the chance to select Flagg, one helpful indicator is past draft lotteries.
The NBA introduced the lottery in 1985 and overhauled it in 1990 with a weighted system to give clubs with the worst records the best chance at the No. 1 pick (25%). In 2019, the league altered the lottery again for the 2019 draft to discourage tanking, awarding the bottom-three teams the same odds (14%).
Since 1990, only one squad outside the bottom 10 has landed the top selection (Orlando Magic, 1993). And in the last 10 drafts, just twice has the first pick gone to a franchise that didn't finish among the league's bottom three.
All of this gives us a clearer idea of where Flagg could land and which teams we should spotlight as a potential fit for the reigning national player of the year.
Here's a look at the clubs with the best odds of securing Flagg's coveted services:
Now, let's count down the 10 most likely lottery winners and explore how the versatile star-in-the-making could make an immediate impact with those teams.
Flagg hopefuls
Portland placed 16th in pace last season despite having a stable full of thoroughbreds. As a result of playing against set defenses, the Blazers owned the 22nd-ranked offense. Flagg's ability to grab a rebound - he ranked ninth in the ACC with 7.5 boards per game - and lead the fastbreak would unleash the likes of Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe, generating easy scoring chances. Flagg also uses those situations to hunt for mismatches and get to the free-throw line, where he shoots 84%.
Houston's offense got stuck in the mud at times last season, particularly with shot creation from the perimeter. The Rockets ranked 22nd in drives per game (44.9) and 25th in field-goal percentage within five feet (61.5%). Having Flagg play off Alperen Sengun in the post would create opportunities for cuts and mismatches, alleviating some of the strain on Ime Udoka's offense. Flagg also has experience throwing high-low passes with 7-foot-2 Khaman Maluach at Duke, which would translate nicely next to Sengun.
Double-big lineups have made a resurgence after small ball dominated most of the previous decade. Pairing Flagg alongside Victor Wembanyama would be a defensive cheat code, with Flagg posting the third-best defensive rating of any high-major player in the nation, trailing the Houston duo of Mylik Wilson and Joseph Tugler. While Flagg's off-ball defense is exceptional, he'll need to improve his on-ball defense, which is solid but not at the same level.
Toronto has tried to anoint Scottie Barnes as its next star. He's a skilled player and a potential multi-time All-Star but not a No. 1 option. You can't give him the ball and ask him to get a basket at will. As a result, the Raptors placed dead last in isolation possessions at only 4.7 per game and 29th in offensive rating in clutch possessions in 2024-25. Flagg has the skill set to be that main option. He had the highest offensive rating (123) of any high-major collegiate player with a usage rate of at least 27%.
Brooklyn lacked playmaking this past campaign. Yes, they had talented scorers, but the Nets were ninth in isolation frequency and 21st in assist ratio. Flagg's 26.8% assist rate is the second-highest of the projected lottery, behind Dylan Harper (27.1%), who was the only source of creation for a terrible Rutgers offense. At Duke, Flagg was the catalyst behind KenPom's top-ranked offense, with his willingness to move the ball being the foundation of the Blue Devils' system.
The 76ers getting the top pick for a third time in nine years would be an interesting outcome. On the surface, Philly already has its No. 1 option, a young and dynamic ball-hander, as well as a creative wing. However, Paul George's dramatic fall from grace will unlikely improve with age. The Sixers could slot Flagg into that true 3-and-D role and bring him along slowly. He was lights out from behind the arc in the latter half of the season, knocking down 44% of his 3-point attempts in conference play.
Zion Williamson has played in just 214 games over his six NBA seasons, but his physical gifts remain tantalizing. Another franchise would surely give up valuable assets to try to rehabilitate his career. Apart from a fluke ankle sprain in the ACC tourney, Flagg hasn't dealt with any major injuries, and his medicals should be clean - a welcome change for a franchise plagued with health issues. Flagg is already a more polished defender than Williamson and could seamlessly step into that point-forward role.
We've waxed poetic about Flagg's offensive capabilities, but his greatest impact would be on defense in Charlotte. The Hornets have been a bottom-10 defensive squad for four consecutive seasons: their core players struggle to consistently stay in front of people. Fortunately, Flagg's help-side defense is perhaps his most NBA-ready attribute. He ranked sixth in the ACC in shot-blocking and 12th in steals - both numbers could've been higher since he consistently blew up actions from the weak side.
The Wizards would be a unique situation for Flagg. Jordan Poole, AJ Johnson, and Bub Carrington are inconsistent but have all shown glimpses of high-level playmaking. Pairing them with a true play-finisher like Flagg could instantly transform their offense. Additionally, Alex Sarr plays like a power forward trapped in a center's body, struggling to finish around the rim despite his 7-foot size. He converted just 60% of his shots within five feet and 29.9% from 5-10 feet this campaign. Flagg, on the other hand, shoots 65.4% around the basket thanks to his elite touch and 7-foot-1 wingspan.
Flagg is most likely to get on-ball reps in Utah since Collin Sexton and Keyonte George aren't long-term options. Will Hardy, known for his creativity, is now free to get imaginative following his contract extension. For example, a Lauri Markkanen and Cooper Flagg pick-and-roll would be fascinating. Using Flagg's size to hunt post-up mismatches, similar to how the Indiana Pacers use Pascal Siakam, could be another interesting wrinkle.
