Whether filling out brackets or placing wagers, tons of information, data, and trends need to be sorted through to make educated picks. However, sometimes the uneducated pick trumps the educated one with the madness that comes with March.
Regardless, historical trends are often used to help predict how the tournament will play out. Let's dive into some to help you pick the games and win your brackets.
1. Fade (most of) the SEC early.
This won't sit well with some SEC homers after the conference just sent 14 teams to the Big Dance, the most from a single conference in NCAA Tournament history. The conference also had the best nonconference winning percentage (.889) in college basketball history.
But that regular-season success is why you should fade many SEC teams in the tournament. Playing a difficult conference schedule can be physically and mentally draining, wearing teams down when the tournament rolls around.
The previous most dominant conferences are a good predictor of what could happen to the SEC. The ACC in 1997 had a slightly lower nonconference win percentage but a higher nonconference margin of victory. It sent six teams to the dance, and only one made it past the Sweet 16. The Big 12 in 2024 had the third-best nonconference scoring margin ever and sent eight teams. None made it past the Sweet 16, and only two advanced to the second weekend.
The Big Ten was considered one of the most dominant regular season conferences in 2021, sending nine teams to the tourney. Only one advanced to the Sweet 16.
I'm not saying every SEC team will flame out early. The juggernauts such as Auburn, Alabama, and Florida could easily end up in the Final Four. But teams such as Kentucky, Texas A&M, Missouri, Oklahoma, and others might be sent home early. Don't be surprised when only three or four SEC teams make it to the second weekend.
2. Ten of the past 11 Final Fours have featured a 7-seed or higher.
It's not a Final Four without a team no one expects to be there joining the party. The only Final Four in the past 11 years that didn't feature a 7-seed or higher was the 2019 tournament with 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-seeds. Ninth-seeded Creighton, 8-seed Gonzaga, and 11-seed Drake are all worthy targets this year.
If you're worried about a lower-seeded Cinderella losing early and want to be safer, each of the past 14 Final Fours had at least one team seeded four or higher.
3. The champion will probably be a 1-seed.
Thirteen of the past 17 national champions were 1-seeds. While it's fun to fire on upsets in the early rounds and guess the Cinderella squad that will make a run, the champion will be a top team. Middling teams can get hot for three or four games, but their luck always runs out at some point.
The national champion market isn't one you have to scroll down too far. It's almost certain the winner will be one of the teams with the best odds. The difficult task is picking which one. Auburn (+500), Duke (+300), Houston (+650), and Florida (+380) are this year's choices.
The four non-top seeds that won a title in the past 17 years were 4-seed UConn in 2023, 2-seed Villanova in 2016, 7-seed UConn in 2014, and 3-seed UConn in 2011. Unless you think the 8th-seeded Huskies will capture a third consecutive title, pick a 1-seed to win it all.
4. Twenty-one of the past 22 national champions have finished top 25 in KenPom's offensive and defensive efficiency ranking.
Seven teams qualify based on this trend: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida, Tennessee, Iowa State, and Clemson.
Four teams just missed out on qualifying but could play themselves into the top 25 of each metric with an impressive tournament run: Michigan State (No. 5 defense, No. 27 offense), Wisconsin (No. 13 offense, No. 27 defense), Maryland (No. 6 defense, No. 28 offense), and Louisville (No. 21 defense, No. 29 offense).
5. A double-digit seed has advanced to the Sweet 16 in 16 consecutive tournaments.
Never pick all chalk in the opening two rounds. Upsets will happen - some we expect and some that are downright shocking.
It's nearly guaranteed that a double-digit seed will embark on a Cinderella run and appear in the Sweet 16. History suggests it's most likely to be an 11-seed, which has 15 Sweet 16 appearances since 2011, the most of any double-digit seed. NC State, which made the Final Four as an 11-seed last year, was the lone double-digit seed to earn a Sweet 16 trip. Drake is an intriguing 11-seed to target this year.
6. At least one No. 2 seed has been knocked out before the Sweet 16 in 24 of the past 27 tournaments.
Coincidentally, one of the three tournaments that all No. 2 seeds advanced to the second weekend was last year when Iowa State, Marquette, Tennessee, and Arizona reached the Sweet 16.
Typically, it's safe to assume at least one 2-seed will be upset in the first or second round - most likely in the second round by a 7- or 10-seed. Furthermore, a 2-seed has failed to reach the championship game in 10 of the past 11 tournaments - Villanova was the exception when it won the title as a 2-seed in 2016. March Madness is not kind to 2-seeds.
Which 2-seed will be knocked out early this year? St. John's will play either Kansas or Arkansas in the second round and Michigan State will likely face Marquette, both of which are potential upset spots. However, Tennessee is the most vulnerable of the 2-seeds.
7. At least one 12-seed usually beats a 5-seed and a top-four seed typically goes down. Who will it be this year?
A 12-seed has defeated a 5-seed in 33 of the past 39 tournaments. It's always the most popular upset on brackets for good reason. No. 12 seed UC San Diego will be a trendy pick to upset No. 5 seed Michigan. The betting line indicates it'll be a close game. Michigan opened as a 4.5-point favorite, but that has shrunk to 2.5 as bettors pounced on UC San Diego.
The Wolverines won the Big Ten title, but that entailed playing four games in four days. It now must travel to Denver for a Thursday tipoff while UC San Diego has extra rest. No. 12 seed Colorado State against No. 5 seed Memphis is another possible upset.
Another popular upset is a top-16 team losing in the first round. At least one top-4 seed has lost in the opening round in 15 of the past 16 tournaments. Last year, No. 13 Yale defeated No. 4 Auburn, and No. 14 Oakland knocked off 3-seed Kentucky. No. 4 seeds Purdue and Texas A&M could be susceptible with challenging matchups against High Point and Yale, respectively.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.
