While the East Region feels chalky with the favorites expected to advance far, the West Region is the opposite. This group has many legitimate national title contenders and incredible coaching personalities, including Dan Hurley, John Calipari, Bill Self, and Rick Pitino. While we can try to predict what will happen, drama and excitement are the only certainties.
West Region odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Florida | -110 |
| Texas Tech | +500 |
| St. John's | +550 |
| Maryland | +850 |
| Kansas | +1500 |
| Missouri | +1800 |
| UConn | +2500 |
| Colorado State | +5000 |
| Arkansas | +8000 |
| Oklahoma | +8000 |
| Memphis | +10000 |
| Drake | +15000 |
*Odds longer than 150-1 not listed
East region winner: St. John's +550
If this were just a bracket, I'd take Florida. But I don't see any value in the Gators at -110. This isn't getting Duke at a short price with an easy path. Florida is the best team in the West Region but will have to go through a gauntlet to reach the Final Four.
St. John's is where the value lies. The Johnnies have the best defensive efficiency rating in the country. They prevent offenses from getting into their actions or generating quality looks. St. John's problem is often abysmal 3-point shooting, which explains why oddsmakers discredit them. However, Pitino has gone far in the tournament with defensive-oriented teams who struggle to shoot.
The Johnnies score the second-most second-chance points among tournament teams and seventh-most paint points. Their gritty, physical brand of basketball wears down opponents for 40 minutes.
Long-shot pick: Maryland +850
Maryland has the highest-scoring starting five in the country, but its game isn't unbalanced; the Terps also have the sixth-best defense. Maryland finished second in the Big Ten and ended the regular season winning eight of its last nine contests. Its lone loss over that span came when Michigan State drilled a half-court heave at the buzzer.
The Terps have the necessary guard play and frontcourt prowess with Derik Queen and Julian Reese to knock off Florida in a potential Sweet 16 showdown. Maryland's bench production is some of the worst in the country, but rotations are tightened in postseason basketball.
KenPom ranks Maryland as the nation's 12th-best team, which makes the Terps worth a Final Four ticket at this price.
Best opening-round bet
No. 12 Colorado State -2.5 vs. No. 5 Memphis
The line says everything. No. 12 seeds are rarely favored over No. 5 seeds, but Memphis is not a strong 5-seed. The Tigers have an impressive nonconference resume but have looked merely average in a weak AAC.
Mountain West teams don't have a good record in the NCAA Tournament, but that's because they usually face power conference teams. Colorado State earned its bid by winning the Mountain West Tournament and is rewarded with playing another mid-major. If this game is close late, the Rams' top-five free-throw percentage among tournament teams will carry them to a win.
Region future bets
Texas Tech to make the Elite Eight +170
As good as St. John's is defensively, its offensive concerns and tournament inexperience could hurt in a potential Sweet 16 matchup against Texas Tech, which is ranked ahead of the Johnnies on KenPom. The Red Raiders have the country's sixth-best offense and a manageable path to the Sweet 16. They finished second in the Big 12 with an impressive win over Houston. Texas Tech hasn't garnered as much attention in this region because of other programs' pedigree, but the Red Raiders are a serious threat.
Maryland to make the Elite Eight +450
I already explained why Maryland can win the region, and the same rationale applies to earning a spot in the Elite Eight. The Terps have an easy path to the Sweet 16, and they'll likely play Florida in that spot. Maryland, which is capable of matching Florida's offensive production, can win that game. The Terps will be underdogs against the Gators, but not as long as +450.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.
