There's a reason why ESPN SportsCenter's "Bad Beats" segment is so popular. If you've been a bettor for any length of time, you empathize during each segment. The good news? You probably made a good bet. The bad news? You can't believe you don't have money in your account to show for it.
When betting debacles happen to our favorite looks of the week, we commiserate to clear our minds and move on. Then there are weeks - like a 6-1 Week 7 - that leave nothing to emotionally exorcise. So, with little to complain about, we're free to dig into the board for this Saturday.
Boston College @ Georgia Tech (-4.5, 58)
We've backed Boston College to varying degrees of success this season, but it couldn't stop Louisville on the road in its lone step up in ACC weight class and was blown out. Its other five games have been within a field goal, so that may be why this line is depressed below my projection of Georgia Tech -7.
We've liked the Eagles because of quarterback Thomas Castellanos' ability to extend drives with his legs, but last week's 31 carries and nine pass attempts against Army was a bit ridiculous.
I can't rationalize the Yellow Jackets' loss to Bowling Green any more than I can explain their win at Miami, but I expect their best effort after a week off to plan for Castellanos in Tech's first conference game at Bobby Dodd Stadium. It should be easy times for their Haynes duo on offense - QB Haynes King and running back Jamal Haynes - against a B.C. defense that's dead last in the country in EPA/play on opponents' dropbacks.
Pick: Georgia Tech (-4.5)
Central Florida @ No. 6 Oklahoma (-17.5, 67.5)
Central Florida hasn't won an FBS game since Week 2 against Boise State, yet the line for this matchup has come down from its peak of -19.5 because the Knights are expected to have starting QB John Rhys Plumlee back and 100% healthy (according to head coach Gus Malzahn) for the first time since that Week 2 game. There's still room for the line to come down more, as I have this game projected at -14 with Plumlee back and including an upward rating adjustment for the Sooners after their Red River Rivalry win.
Pick: Central Florida (+17.5)
Mississippi State @ Arkansas (-6.5, 48.5)
Arkansas was one of our winners last week, though in a losing cause at Alabama. The Razorbacks found some efficiency through the air in the second half against a tough defense, and now are home to face the 127th-ranked team in EPA/play on opponents' dropbacks.
This is only the second road game of the season for Mississippi State, who lost by seven at South Carolina despite 500-plus yards of total offense against a Gamecocks' defense that's far worse than the Razorbacks', and who need to win four more games for bowl eligibility. This also happens to be the first of its final four home games where Arkansas should be favored.
Pick: Arkansas (-6.5)
Hawaii @ New Mexico (+1, 60)
We're headed to the bottom of the Mountain West for a best bet as we hash out the conference's worst team not named Nevada.
Hawaii has the worst offense, while New Mexico has the worst defense, but I'll trust senior QB Dylan Hopkins to run the best unit in this game - the Lobos' 36th-ranked offense in EPA/play. Comparing conference losses, New Mexico falling to San Jose State and Wyoming is more excusable than Hawaii getting crushed by UNLV and losing on the island to San Diego State.
Pick: New Mexico moneyline (+100)
No. 13 Ole Miss @ Auburn (+6.5, 54.5)
I double taked when I noticed Auburn has a better offensive early-down success rate (53%) this season than Ole Miss (50.7%). I was less surprised to note that the Tigers' defensive EDSR is better, too. Auburn's lost three straight, but Georgia and road defeats at Texas A&M and LSU are excusable. The Rebels have played two true road games: a two-touchdown loss at Alabama and a 17-17 game through three quarters at Tulane.
Pick: Auburn (+6.5)
TCU @ Kansas State (-6.5, 60.5)
Maybe freshman QB Josh Hoover - who threw for 400-plus yards in his first start last week - is the next big thing for TCU, but it's more likely that a home game against BYU and its No. 99 ranking in EPA/play on opponents' dropbacks was a cozy matchup. A trip to Manhattan, Kansas, won't be so comfy. QB Max Duggan dragged TCU to a regular-season victory and to overtime of the Big 12 Championship last season against Kansas State, but needing Hoover to do the same is asking too much in a game that should be lined over a touchdown.
Pick: Kansas State (-6.5)
Arizona State @ No. 4 Washington (+27, 59.5)
Washington deserved the bump in market ratings that made it -3 against Oregon last week. The Huskies have been great this season. So, an opening point spread of -28.5 made sense.
It also makes sense that enough early money has come in on Arizona State to move the line below four touchdowns, since it'll be tough for the Huskies to play to the high of their range in a game they know they can win with baseline effort.
The Sun Devils are 0-5 against the FBS this season, but can hang around inside the number since they're coming off a bye and since they've settled on Trenton Bourguet at QB, who was good in close losses to California and Colorado.
Pick: Arizona State (+27)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
