Had you said that Mississippi State would score seven points at Arkansas and not only cover but win outright, I would've wondered if you'd been to too many tailgates this season. I'd also suggest that the Razorbacks' offensive coordinator might not be long for Fayetteville. Sure enough, a 7-3 Arkansas loss was so unfathomable that the school pink-slipped Dan Enos, who lost more than we did on an otherwise decent 4-3 Week 8.
West Virginia @ Central Florida (-7, 58.5)
We start with two teams potentially headed in different directions.
West Virginia started the season competitively, shifting its market rating upward with a 4-1 start. However, the program's wins appear less impressive than they were at the time. Meanwhile, the defense has gotten gashed by Houston and Oklahoma State in the last two weeks.
Central Florida saw John Rhys Plumlee return - fully healthy for the first time since early September - and the team almost knocked off Oklahoma in Norman. Even the defeat should energize the Knights for the push for bowl eligibility. They'll be fully engaged to wash away the taste of blowing a 25-point fourth-quarter lead in their last home game in the "Bounce House."
Pick: Central Florida (-7)
Mississippi State @ Auburn (-6.5, 41.5)
A double "If at first, you don't succeed, try again" situation with two teams that showed up in this space last week.
Will Rogers might be back for the Bulldogs, so they could score more than seven points this week. However, Mississippi State's offense ranks in the bottom third of the country in most offensive metrics, and Auburn's defense is rated similarly to Arkansas'.
Auburn was a half-point shy last week of covering at home against Ole Miss, which has an offense that's far more terrifying and also has a better defense. That's in keeping with the four heavyweights that Auburn just played. The Tigers finally get to take a step down at home and should be able to outscore the Bulldogs enough to win by a touchdown or more.
Pick: Auburn (-6.5)
Pittsburgh @ No. 14 Notre Dame (-20.5, 44.5)
Notre Dame finally got to exhale after as demanding of a four-game stretch as you'll encounter for a contender. After a week off, this might be a tough game for the Irish to play to the top of their range.
Since Pittsburgh shuffled its personnel, the Panthers beat Louisville - which had just toppled Notre Dame - and were a debatable spot on a quarterback slide away from another win. Newly unquestioned starter Christian Veilleux doesn't turn the ball over, and Pitt plays a conservative game to hang around as long as possible. Pat Narduzzi's had success preparing for Sam Hartman before, as his defense picked the quarterback off four times in the 2021 ACC title game when Hartman was at Wake Forest.
Pick: Pittsburgh (+20.5)
Louisiana @ South Alabama (-10.5, 54.5)
It might've been thought all was lost for Louisiana when senior starting quarterback Ben Wooldridge went out early in the third game of the season, but dual-threat freshman Zeon Chriss has come in and ran for at least 67 yards in six games. The Ragin' Cajuns' two losses were at Minnesota when they outgained the Golden Gophers and last week's 3-point loss to Georgia State.
South Alabama's defense-first approach is the inverse of Louisiana's, and the team might be looking ahead to a rematch with Troy on Thursday after last year's loss to the Trojans kept them out of the Sun Belt Championship.
Pick: Louisiana (+10.5)
No. 19 Air Force @ Colorado State (+14, 46.5)
Unless you had the MountainWest.com feed poppin', you missed an electric finish in Las Vegas when Colorado State took the lead on a 55-yard field goal but lost on a last-second field goal to UNLV. You were more likely to have seen Navy-Air Force on national television if you didn't mind your eyes bleeding.
Unlike Navy's offense, completely without ammo, Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi and the Rams' pass offense is the best the Falcons have faced on the road this season. The freshman is getting better by the game, as his three losses all looked like wins at one point.
Pick: Colorado State (+14)
No. 3 Ohio State @ Wisconsin (+14.5, 45.5)
Remember when you were watching the Oregon-Washington game two weeks ago, thinking, "I don't know who wins this, but both these teams are College Football Playoff-caliber?" A week later, both slipped enough to win but not enough to cover against second-tier Pac-12 teams.
Last week, maybe you were watching Penn State-Ohio State and were thinking, "I know James Franklin isn't going to win this, but neither of these teams is CFP-worthy." Now the Buckeyes have to head to Madison to take on a mid-tier Big 10 team and are being asked to win by three scores.
Expect a low-scoring game where Ohio State's offense takes a while to get going, which should instill some belief in the Badgers to pull off an upset if they can muster enough offense to put pressure on Kyle McCord to make plays late.
Pick: Wisconsin (+14.5)
Washington State @ Arizona State (+5, 51.5)
The Sun Devils probably should've pulled off a stunner in Seattle while we were sleeping Saturday night. For the same reasons that we liked Arizona State getting almost four touchdowns last week, we'll expect a steadily improving team on both sides of the ball to manifest a conference win when it beats an up-and-down Washington State squad in Tempe.
Pick: Arizona State (+5)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
