If you thought we reached peak bowl season Monday afternoon when Western Kentucky completed a 28-point comeback win with its third-string quarterback, Tuesday topped it before kickoff.
Money was piling in with UTSA seventh-year quarterback Frank Harris aiming to finish his career with the Roadrunners' first bowl win, moving the line from -8.5 to as high as -12.5. Then, the rumors started.
Harris' shoulder wouldn't allow him to play, and the offense would be turned over to freshman Owen McCown (son of former NFLer Josh). The line plummeted to -7, which looked prescient when McCown threw two interceptions on the first four drives to help spot Marshall 14 points.
Alas, all the hand-wringing was for naught. The Roadrunners proved they weren't a one-man outfit, scoring 35 of the next 38 points to cover all numbers.
In bowl season, you just never know.
Birmingham Bowl
Duke vs. Troy (-7.5, 44.5)
| PROJECTION | OPENING LINE |
|---|---|
| Troy -7 | Troy -5.5 |
Saturday starts with a tough one, as both teams have seen their head coach pack up and leave for greener pastures. Buying Troy at -5.5 was an easy decision before the opening line moved, which seems based on Mike Elko going to Texas A&M and even bigger roster holes on Duke.
However, the Blue Devils' rating had already accounted for quarterback Riley Leonard's absence since he got hurt months ago, and the number has gone through our projection to the other side of a key number. I'll start the slate by trying to catch a middle, playing on Duke at this price.
Pick: Duke (+7.5)
Camellia Bowl
Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State (-3, 54.5)
| PROJECTION | OPENING LINE |
|---|---|
| NIU -1.5 | ARKST -1.5 |
If you buy into the Sun Belt's struggles (0-5 ATS) this bowl season, you'll happily fade the line move that has Arkansas State as a favorite on a key number.
I've never been high on the Red Wolves, whose season was kept afloat by an early schedule that included Stony Brook, UMass, and Southern Miss.
Jaylen Raynor caused problems for Louisiana, Louisiana-Monroe, and Texas State toward the end of the season. The best defense of that group, Louisiana, was 86th in EPA/Play this season and just gave up over 500 yards to Jacksonville State in the New Orleans Bowl. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois was 22nd in that same metric.
Pick: Northern Illinois (+3)
Armed Forces Bowl
Air Force vs. James Madison (-2, 40.5)
| PROJECTION | OPENING LINE |
|---|---|
| JMU -5 | JMU -4.5 |
We did it, everybody! After all the sobbing in the streets about James Madison not getting into a bowl game, the Dukes are in the postseason. Now that this injustice has been rectified, what will they do?
The JMU coaching staff has left for Indiana. However, the players who've entered the transfer portal all seemingly intend to play, the most important being quarterback Jordan McCloud.
Air Force is getting its starting quarterback, Zac Larrier, back. That changes the projection of JMU -5 to closer to pick'em, explaining the line drop from the open.
Military academies have a strong bowl record, but they rarely face a team that was as strong as JMU this season.
Pick: James Madison (-2)
Idaho Bowl
Utah State vs. Georgia State (+2.5, 59.5)
| PROJECTION | OPENING LINE |
|---|---|
| GAST -2.5 | GAST -3.5 |
The location of a bowl game rarely matters as much as it's often suggested, but seldom does a team from the Atlanta area go to Idaho to face a program from Utah.
Georgia State's defense is now on the level of Sun Belt and non-bowl teams like Louisiana-Monroe and Southern Miss with many of its portal players headed to better programs. The Panthers lost five straight to finish the season, so this isn't a team you want to be backing. Utah State won three of four to end the season and doesn't have any significant portal-dwellers.
Pick: Utah State (-2.5)
68 Ventures Bowl
Eastern Michigan vs. South Alabama (-17, 45.5)
| PROJECTION | OPENING LINE |
|---|---|
| SALA -14 | SALA -14 |
There's no need to waste too much time on this game. Eastern Michigan is by far the lowest-rated bowl team. However, the line move from -14 to -17 means there's only one way to play this game if, for some reason, you had to bet it.
Pick: Eastern Michigan (+17)
Las Vegas Bowl
Northwestern vs. Utah (-6, 40.5)
| PROJECTION | OPENING LINE |
|---|---|
| Utah -17.5 | Utah -9.5 |
If theoretical motivation was the be-all and end-all for bowl season, forget the spread and bet Northwestern to win this game outright. It seems they're way more into it. The opening line and the move toward the Wildcats indicate that, and Utah has lost four straight bowl games.
However, Kyle Whittingham was 11-1 in bowl contests before this recent stretch, so he's proven that he cares about the postseason even when it's not the step-up that Utah's faced lately. The Utes have shown they can work around being shorthanded in the tough Pac-12 all season, while Northwestern's made it this far by winning games against backup quarterbacks in the lame Big Ten West.
Pick: Utah (-6)
Hawaii Bowl
Coastal Carolina vs. San Jose State (-10, 51.5)
| PROJECTION | OPENING LINE |
|---|---|
| SJSU -7 | SJSU -7.5 |
San Jose State won six straight to close the season, and now quarterback Chevan Cordeiro heads to where it all started for him in Hawaii. The betting market seems into that.
San Jose State's defense (93rd in EPA/Play) is a problem, though. Coastal Carolina won't have star quarterback Grayson McCall, but Ethan Vasko provides mobility, and he accounted for six touchdowns to just one interception in three games this season. The Chanticleers can keep it close and maybe even pull the biggest upset of the bowl season.
Pick: Coastal Carolina (+10)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
