Lane Kiffin heads back to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium for his first game against his former team - one of the most highly anticipated contests on the college football calendar. Plus, there's an afternoon ACC showdown between SMU and Louisville in a week littered with interesting games.
Here are our picks and favorite bets against the spread.
👉 Check out all college football Week 3 lines on theScore Bet
Our trio of betting writers - Brenden Deeg, Dane Belbeck, and Eric Patterson - will make picks against the spread all season.
Brenden Deeg breaks down this week's marquee games, adding his own analysis and insights. He also identifies three hidden gems that may be going overlooked by the public.
Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET
🏈 Bet: Louisville (-1.5)
This is the biggest game of the week outside of Kiffin's return to Oxford, as it will have serious ramifications for the ACC standings. The winner sets themselves up nicely to make the conference title game, assuming Miami takes the other spot.
One of the biggest stories in college football is the emergence of Louisville quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, who's been on an absolute tear to start the season. Over his last five quarters, Kienholz has logged 593 passing yards, 106 yards on the ground, and seven total touchdowns.
While SMU's Kevin Jennings has put up great numbers in his own right, he's been susceptible to coughing up the ball throughout his career. Since Jennings became a starter in 2024, his 30 turnovers rank second in the country, and he's already recorded two this season. Turnovers are a crucial stat in any football game, but especially for an SMU offense that ranks 129th nationally in EPA per designed rush.
I don't see SMU fixing its lackluster run game by Saturday, and that spells trouble for Jennings against Louisville's stout pass rush, led by star Clev Lubin. Cardinals head coach Jeff Brohm has surely had this game circled on his calendar after losing to the Mustangs last season. His defense will force Jennings to make enough mistakes to come out with a win and cover this number at home. 👉 Add Louisville to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
Game time: 7 p.m.
🏈 Bet: Florida (-1.5)
Head coaches Jon Sumrall and Alex Golesh are facing each other in their first SEC matchup with their new programs, and both have seen early success. Florida and Auburn are off to 2-0 starts, and Saturday's result could dictate how the rest of their seasons go.
While Auburn has a bright future under Golesh, Florida is in a better position to win now on account of having the more talented roster. The Gators' offense has looked great behind quarterback Aaron Philo, who transferred from Georgia Tech and subsequently won the starting job. He's completed over 76% of his throws for 517 yards with five touchdowns to just one interception, and his passing efficiency (214.1) ranks seventh in FBS.
Philo also has arguably the best running back in the country next to him in Jadan Baugh, who's off to a red-hot start in 2026. His 10.6 yards per carry rank first among the 135 running backs with at least 20 attempts this season, and he's notched five touchdowns and generated a nation-leading 67.7% rush success rate.
The Tigers' offense, meanwhile, is led by quarterback Byrum Brown, who's lethal running the ball but has already turned the ball over three times and is facing a solid Florida front seven. In the five games in which Golesh's teams have played a Power 4 opponent since 2024, they've averaged just 15.6 points per game and posted a 1-4 record. It will likely be tough sledding for Auburn's offense Saturday. I see Florida taking this one by at least a field goal. 👉 Add Florida to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
Game time: 7:30 p.m.
🏈 Bet: LSU (-3.5)
Of course there's been midweek drama leading up to Kiffin's return. LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt was listed as doubtful with shoulder soreness on Wednesday's availability report. However, Ole Miss reportedly doesn't believe the designation is sincere and is preparing for him to play. The Rebels may be correct in their assumption, considering the Tigers upgraded Leavitt to questionable Thursday.
Regardless, LSU's defense will decide this game. It laid a beating on Clemson's offense in the season opener, looking like one of the best units in the country. Through two outings, the Tigers are allowing just 142 yards per game with an absurd, nation-leading plus-57.68 total EPA, according to TruMedia. They have talent at every level of the defense and enough speed in the back end to match up with Deuce Alexander. LSU's DJ Pickett has emerged as one of the best cornerbacks in the country and should give the star wideout fits all night.
Additionally, Ole Miss hasn't run the ball particularly well to start the season, ranking 97th in total rushing yards. Louisville shut down Kewan Lacy in the first game and forced the Rebels to win through the air, which I don't consider a viable option in this contest.
Even if backup QB Landen Clark starts for LSU, I see the Tigers succeeding against Ole Miss' secondary, which got gashed by Louisville and killed by coverage busts that Kiffin should be able to replicate. It's also worth noting that the spread only dropped by 1.5 points as a result of Leavitt's "doubtful" designation. If Clark, an Elon transfer, ultimately does play, he'll be surrounded by arguably the best roster in the country. I'll take the Tigers to cover this small spread. 👉 Add LSU to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
Game time: 3 p.m.
🏈 Bet: Toledo (-5.5)
Temple is coming off a respectable showing against Penn State, having held the Nittany Lions to just 27 points. However, it now goes on the road to play a Toledo team that's looked solid through two games.
The Rockets destroyed FCS program Central Connecticut State 63-10 last week, but their 30-20 loss to Michigan State in Week 1 is more telling. Toledo played its Big Ten opponent tough and held star running back Camryn Edwards to just 97 yards on 28 carries. That defensive attack should translate well against a Temple team that needs to run the ball to win. Watch for Toledo linebacker Isaac Zay, who's been an absolute menace to start the season and played really well versus the Spartans. I'm also impressed with Rockets quarterback John Alan Richter, who's notched 448 passing yards with five touchdowns.
Temple has thrown for just 249 yards through two games, good for 130th in the nation, while Toledo's pass defense has surrendered a 99.4 passing efficiency mark, which sits 19th in the country. The Rockets can shut down the Owls' run game and force them to rely on their abysmal air attack instead. The Glass Bowl is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and I like Toledo to win by at least a touchdown. 👉 Add Toledo to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
Game time: 7 p.m.
🏈 Bet: South Alabama (-6.5)
This spread jumped from -4.5 to -6.5 for South Alabama, and rightfully so. The Jaguars, equipped with an offense that's averaging 31.5 points, have been fun to watch early in the season. Quarterback Bishop Davenport's 0.38 EPA/dropback ranks 30th in the country, and he's completed 67.8% of his throws with three touchdowns to zero turnovers. South Alabama also nearly pulled off a massive road upset over Tulane last week.
On the other side, Ohio's defense has been a nightmare, ranking 137th in the nation in EPA/dropback and 132nd in success rate. The Bobcats are also dealing with serious injury concerns at quarterback, as third-string freshman Levi Davis was forced to enter last week's game versus Jacksonville State after the team's top two quarterbacks exited with injuries. Bobcats head coach John Hauser wouldn't commit to naming a starter for Saturday, but all signs point to Davis making his first career start.
On top of the injury issues, Ohio has to travel to South Alabama, where the Jaguars have a significant home-field advantage at Hancock Whitney Stadium. Give me the Jaguars to win by at least a touchdown. 👉 Add South Alabama to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
Game time: 6 p.m.
🏈 Bet: FIU (+6.5)
Let's head to Flagler Credit Union Stadium for my final pick of the week: an in-state matchup between FIU and Florida Atlantic.
It's only been two games - against good opponents, in fact - but Florida Atlantic's defense has been awful. The Owls rank 120th in success rate as well as dead last in EPA/play and total EPA, and they're allowing a whopping 4.09 points per drive. They let Navy back into last week's matchup and got torched for 6.8 yards per play.
The Panthers, meanwhile, have been sneaky good and pulled off a backdoor cover against South Florida in their opener. Quarterback JJ Kohl has looked solid, averaging over 330 passing yards. He should be able to help FIU keep this one close. Willie Simmons is a great coach who motivates his team to play hard. This spread feels too big, and it should be priced closer to a field goal. 👉 Add FIU to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
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