NFL Week 13 best bets: Spread, moneyline, total, and teaser
That's more like it! There was nothing nefarious in Week 12 other than the usual bet on a total going awry. We'll never know whether the Titans would've pushed the game over on their last drive since they opted to rough the Bengals' kicker - effectively ending the game with a first down on the penalty. We'll even take a little luck with the Jaguars' comeback win over the Ravens to cash our upset of the week.
|BET TYPE||LAST WEEK||SEASON (units)|
|ATS trio||2-0-1 (+2)||19-12-5 (+5.8)|
|ML upset||+1.6||6-6 (+5.2)|
Best bets ATS
Here are Mac Jones' stats since returning from his high ankle sprain.
|@ NYJ||194||TD / INT / 6 sacks|
|vs. IND||147||TD / 4 sacks|
|vs. NYJ||246||6 sacks|
|@ MIN||382||2 TD / 3 sacks|
|vs. BUF||195||TD / 1 sack|
The only success the Patriots' offense managed came against the Vikings' defense, which probably isn't a great sign for Minnesota. In a small sample size over two seasons, Mike White's efficiency is among the best in the league for quarterbacks with five games played. That wasn't an outlier for the Vikings, either, as they're last in the NFL in opponents' yards per pass attempt.
The Jets are on the other end of the spectrum - they have the fifth-best pass defense based on yards per attempt and sack percentage. Vikings left tackle Christian Darrisaw reportedly has no timetable for his return from concussion, which will make protecting Kirk Cousins a problem.
You're worried about the Ravens holding a lead. However, the offenses that pulled off comebacks on Baltimore were ranked second, third, 11th, and 24th in yards per play this season. The Giants - the lowest ranked of the bunch - relied on a 13-yard drive after a Lamar Jackson interception. Jackson's been picked off just once since.
The Broncos' offense is worse than that of any of the teams Baltimore lost to, and the team fits the mold of the Saints, Panthers, Patriots, and early-season Jets - opposition the Ravens beat by 10-plus points. For all the praise Denver's defense earned, it's only forced 11 turnovers this season, so you shouldn't expect short fields for Russell Wilson.
Dan Campbell gets a hard time for playing the clock suboptimally in the loss to the Bills, but we shouldn't beat up on the Lions for falling just short of a fourth straight win. Their defense is slowly improving and their top corner, Jeff Okudah, is expected back this week.
Trevor Lawrence was impressive in the fourth quarter against the Ravens, but there was a reason the Jaguars twice trailed late in the contest. We always look to fade teams off a "jump-and-hug" win, so expect the Jaguars to come back to earth with a hard time keeping up with the Lions' offense.
Moneyline upset of the week
Our defined parameter for this section is underdogs paying at least +150.
In college football, you can spend weeks preparing for a big game knowing you don't need to do anything special to beat some of the cupcakes on the schedule. Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel has had the Browns at home, a bye week, and the Texans at home as his assignments leading up to a game against his former team.
My guess is he's dedicated some extra time and saved a few pages of the playbook for the 49ers. San Francisco, meanwhile, was preoccupied with a rivalry game and two primetime contests before it scored just 13 points in a win over New Orleans last Sunday.
Miami looked great against the bad defenses mentioned above, but it also didn't have to try for more than five of eight quarters in those games, so the stats could be even more impressive. Four quarters of facing Tua Tagovailoa and Co. will be the Niners' toughest test since their defeat to the Chiefs five weeks ago.
Best total bet
Chiefs / Bengals under 53.5 points
In Week 17 last season, the Chiefs scored four touchdowns in the first half at Cincinnati. Lou Anarumo's defense made some halftime adjustments, and Kansas City scored just three points in the second half. In the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs scored three touchdowns in the first half, but again managed just a field goal in the second half of another comeback win for the Bengals that stayed under the total.
The Chiefs changed their offense to account for its vulnerability, but that came at the cost of its explosiveness. They've also dispersed their capital to strengthen their defense. Expect a feeling-out process in a game that stays under a relatively high total.
Best 6-point teaser
Ravens -2.5 / Giants +8.5
If we like the Ravens to win comfortably, we really like them to win by a field goal. As for the Giants, they're a prime teaser leg in a low-scoring game with the Commanders. Washington has mostly had the better team over recent years, but the Giants are 4-1 in matchups Daniel Jones started, with a one-point loss the lone blemish.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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