After a hot opening week, we cooled off in Week 2, serving as a reminder that picking against the closing spread for NFL games isn't as easy as some make it seem. The Raiders, Saints, and Browns won straight up as touchdown-or-greater underdogs, while the Eagles narrowly got past the Titans as a seven-point favorite.
Let's try to right the ship with our picks against the spread, props, and survivor selection - if you're still alive - for Week 3.
👉 Check out all of the Week 3 lines available on theScore Bet here
Jump to: Spread picks | Early slate | Late slate | Player props | TD scorers | Survivor selections
Our trio of betting writers - Eric Patterson, Brenden Deeg, and Dane Belbeck - will make picks against the spread for Sunday's slate and Monday Night Football all season.
Eric Patterson breaks down his favorite picks against the spread, adding his own analysis and insights. He'll also identify player props and touchdown scorers to target, plus a survivor selection to help you win your pool.
🏈 Bet: Jaguars (-2.5)
I'm not a believer in the Steelers at all, so the Patriots' convincing victory over Pittsburgh last week hasn't strengthened my opinion of last year's Super Bowl runner-up. Drake Maye has struggled through two games with a -0.10 EPA/play, which is the sixth worst among quarterbacks who have played at least 50 downs, according to SumerSports. Losing A.J. Brown has proven to be significant for New England's offense, and its defense has only faced the immobile Aaron Rodgers and backup Drew Lock, who was thrust into the season opener after Sam Darnold went down early.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars dismantled the Browns at home in Week 1 before heading to Denver, which is always a tough place to play. Jacksonville's offense will be the toughest test for the Patriots so far this season. Trevor Lawrence has the seventh-best EPA/play among all QBs, and he's currently the better signal-caller in this matchup. Laying only 2.5 points with a home team that's arguably better on both sides of the ball is the position to take. 👉 Add the Jaguars to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
🏈 Bet: Bengals (-3.5)
Typically, AFC North matchups involving teams not named the Browns are tight contests. You could justify taking the Steelers and the points based on history alone. However, this isn't your typical Cincinnati defense, and Pittsburgh's offense is inept.
Rodgers is the worst-rated QB in EPA/play among 30 qualifiers by a wide margin. His mark of -0.47 EPA/play means that every time he takes a snap, he's theoretically giving the other team nearly half a point. Rodgers' 35.96% success rate is also last in the league, and he's led the Steelers to just a single offensive touchdown in two games.
On the other sideline, Dexter Lawrence's addition to the Bengals' defense has been a huge difference-maker. The unit is in the top 10 in both pressure rate and hurry rate while being tied for first in sacks. Cincinnati is having pass-rushing success despite blitzing at the third-lowest rate in the league. It also has the third-best run-stopping win rate, according to ESPN analytics.
The Steelers will again struggle to run the ball between the tackles versus the Bengals, forcing Rodgers to drop back. And good things tend to happen for opposing teams when the 42-year-old has to throw. 👉 Add the Bengals to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
🏈 Bet: Chargers (+7.5)
The Chargers are a disaster, having lost two home games as seven-plus-point favorites. Their offense appears to be in disarray, and their defense has taken a big step back after losing defense coordinator Jesse Minter to the Ravens. So, who in their right mind is taking Los Angeles? Exactly.
At some point, Mike McDaniel's scheme is going to click for Justin Herbert and Co. Perhaps it's this week against a Bills defense that's allowed 31 points in each of its first two games.
Buffalo scored 36 versus the Texans to cover in Week 1 and then posted 41 on the Lions during its unveiling of the new Highmark Stadium. It's easy to envision the Bills taking their foot off the gas a bit after two big wins to start the season. Buffalo should win this game, but Los Angeles does have the tools to keep up with Josh Allen's offense. 👉 Add the Chargers to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
🏈 Bet: Panthers (-2.5)
The Browns shocked everyone by winning as eight-point underdogs in Tampa last week. Their defense looked solid, but it's hard to draw any conclusions with the way Baker Mayfield is currently playing.
Meanwhile, Bryce Young is in the midst of a breakout. The 2023 No. 1 pick ranks fifth among qualified QBs in EPA/play and has led the Panthers' offense to 71 points through two games. Even if Carolina's defense is below average, I don't anticipate Deshaun Watson being able to take advantage.
I also don't expect the Cleveland crowd to give Watson a longer leash after last week's victory. If there's an early turnover, expect the boo-birds to come out immediately. 👉 Add the Panthers to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
🏈 Bet: Cowboys (+3.5)
The Ravens and Cowboys are in Rio de Janeiro for what's arguably the game of the week.
Baltimore lost to the Saints at home last week, quickly killing all the hype Declan Doyle's new offense got after hanging 41 points on the Colts in Week 1. Now the Ravens will likely be without Zay Flowers for the second straight game.
The Cowboys took care of business over the division rival Commanders in Week 2 after dropping a road game against the Giants to start the season. Dallas' offense will face a much stiffer test in Week 3, but it should be able to keep pace with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.
I would have expected the Ravens to be 3.5-point favorites at home, but in a neutral-site game in Brazil, those points are too valuable to pass up. 👉 Add the Cowboys to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
🏈 Bet: Broncos (+2.5)
Through two games, it's impossible to get a sense of who the Rams are. They were embarrassed in Australia after making some questionable travel plans and then beat a Jameis Winston-led Giants team Monday. In Week 3, Los Angeles is a slight favorite on the road in Denver - its toughest test yet.
I could see this line closing with the Broncos as narrow favorites, which is why I'll take the 1.5 points with the home team. Puka Nacua is listed as doubtful. If he can't go, Pat Surtain II will be able to shadow Davante Adams if Denver elects to do so.
Bo Nix finally found his stride in the second half of Week 2, so hopefully he can carry that momentum into Sunday. If Nix doesn't turn the ball over and give Matthew Stafford short fields, the Broncos should walk away with the win. 👉 Add the Broncos to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
🏈 Bet: Over 6.5 receptions (-115)
The Commanders can't cover anybody, but they'll be tasked with trying to contain Smith-Njigba on Sunday. Don't expect them to succeed, as the reigning Offensive Player of the Year is in line to feast instead. Smith-Njigba, who holds a league-high 44% target share, had eight receptions in Week 1 and nine in Week 2. Darnold is set to return from his glute injury, and he'll waste no time feeding his top receiver.
🏈 Bet: Over 5.5 receptions (+135)
Last week, we predicted that if Washington ran more routes than he did in Week 1, he'd easily clear his receptions total. That panned out, with Washington catching seven of 12 targets on 28 routes run. I'd expect his route number to be similar against the Patriots, allowing Washington, who has a whopping 36.73% target share, to hit the over in receptions for a third straight week.
🏈 Bet: Over 39.5 rushing + receiving yards (-130)
Johnson should see increased usage with the Chiefs being 11.5-point favorites over the Dolphins. Kansas City has no need to load up touches for Kenneth Walker III late in the game if the score is out of reach.
Johnson is averaging 7.36 yards per touch through two games. His efficiency will decrease somewhat as he gets more work, but the fifth-round rookie should easily clear this number if he handles 10 touches against a bad Miami defense.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (-135)
Allen is basically the Bills' goal-line back at this point. He's scored four touchdowns on the ground already after logging 14 last season. For comparison, James Cook is -175 to score versus the Chargers, suggesting that there's value in backing the MVP favorite to find the end zone for a third straight game.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+275)
Johnson cashed a bet for us in Week 1, so we'll go back to him in a nice matchup against the Raiders. Oronde Gadsden caught the the Chargers' lone touchdown pass last week versus Las Vegas, and Johnson is far more of a threat. Tyler Shough's target tree is limited to Chris Olave, Devaughn Vele, and Johnson, so backing the tight end to score is a solid option.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+325)
Waller has turned into Young's go-to red-zone option. He hauled in two touchdowns last week and had another in Week 1 that was called back due to a penalty. Waller may not receive a ton of looks elsewhere on the field, but he clearly has a role in the Panthers' offense.
Congrats if you're still alive in your survivor pool. If you followed my main pick last week (the Bucs), Mayfield ended your run with an embarrassing effort at home. I also discussed taking the 49ers at home over the lowly Dolphins, which, in hindsight, was clearly the way to go.
Week 3 is a difficult one for those still alive. The biggest home favorites are the Bills over the Chargers, the 49ers over the Cardinals, and the Lions over the Jets. We'll assume many people used San Francisco last week, and it's unclear which version of Los Angeles will show up this week, making Detroit the best option.
You could also go with Kansas City on the road in Miami. Taking a visiting team isn't the best idea, but the Dolphins have the worst roster in the league and the Chiefs are rolling.
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