Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet
Every Monday, NFL betting fallout analyzes key storylines from the previous week and how they impact bettors and markets moving forward.
Upset of the week
The Bengals entered Week 1 as 7.5-point favorites, the biggest spread of the weekend. They attracted the most moneyline tickets and handle of any team Sunday. Cincinnati was -425 on the moneyline against the Patriots, giving the team an 80% implied probability of winning. Yet the Patriots upset the Bengals in Joe Burrow's first game back from a wrist injury suffered last November.
Burrow's return was as ugly as the Giants' alternate uniforms. He threw for 164 yards and led the offense to just 10 points. Ja'Marr Chase had six receptions for 62 yards despite missing training camp while pursuing an extension, but a dark cloud will preside over the Bengals' offense until the dispute is resolved.
Assuming a deal eventually gets done, Bengals fans shouldn't be concerned with a Week 1 loss. Cincinnati is 1-4 in Week 1 since Burrow debuted in 2020.
The Bengals began the 2022 season 0-2 before winning 12 of their next 14 games and the AFC title. They started last season 1-3 before winning four straight and re-emerging in the playoff picture, only to have Burrow's injury halt their hopes of a Super Bowl return.
While Cincinnati knocked thousands out of survivor pools Sunday, it's a great time for Bengals believers to pounce. Cincinnati moved from +1300 to +1600 to win the Super Bowl and from +150 to +225 to win the AFC North.
Rookie debuts gone wrong
Caleb Williams' much-anticipated debut became a showcase for the Bears' potent defense rather than an opportunity for Chicago to show off its shiny new toy.
Like when a student gets an A on a group project they contributed nothing to, Williams was credited with a win after throwing for 93 yards on 14-for-29 passing. He was the only quarterback to throw for less than 100 yards in Week 1. Williams' passing yards and touchdown prop fell way below the projected line, but the Bears still defeated the Titans thanks to two defensive and special teams touchdowns.
Williams became the first quarterback drafted No. 1 overall to win his debut since David Carr in 2002. However, oddsmakers and fans must temper expectations for Williams until he acquires more regular-season reps.
Jayden Daniels' debut went slightly better than Williams'. The second overall pick fell below his betting line of 211.5 passing yards with 184, but his mobility was on full display in a 37-20 loss to the Buccaneers. Daniels led the Commanders with 88 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries, soaring past his 40.5 rushing yards prop.
The Cardinals drafted Marvin Harrison Jr. fourth overall to be a prominent feature in their offense, but he debuted with one catch for four yards Sunday. Arizona's offense still excelled, though, scoring 28 points in a loss to the Bills. Don't expect similarly weak production from Harrison moving forward.
In the Offensive Rookie of the Year market, Daniels went from +500 to +325. Williams, meanwhile, is +165 after entering Week 1 +140. Daniels could take another leap with Washington as a 2.5-point favorite against the Giants in Week 2, while the Bears are 6.5-point underdogs at the Texans on Sunday Night Football.
Packers' outlook without Jordan Love
Jordan Love escaped a season-ending injury after his knee buckled in the closing minutes of the Packers' loss Friday to the Eagles in Brazil. However, he'll miss the next few weeks at least with an MCL ailment.
Malik Willis served as Green Bay's backup versus Philadelphia after the Packers traded for him at the end of August. He has limited starting experience but has played meaningful snaps for the Titans. Green Bay could also sign a veteran quarterback like Ryan Tannehill.
Whoever's under center won't have Love's skill set, meaning Matt LaFleur will have to simplify the playbook in the coming weeks.
As a result, the Packers' odds have lengthened significantly. They were +800 to win the NFC before Week 1 and are now +1800. Green Bay was +200 to win the NFC North behind the Lions and is now +550 behind the Lions and Bears. The Packers had a 62% implied probability of making the playoffs, which plummeted to 35%.
The good news for Green Bay is the team doesn't have a challenging schedule in the next month. The Packers are +3.5 at home against the Colts this Sunday before playing the Titans, Vikings, and Rams. If they can stay afloat before Love returns, there might be some value in placing Packers futures.
Familiar faces in new places
Kirk Cousins' dreadful return from a season-ending Achilles injury was somehow worse than Burrow's Week 1 return.
Cousins' passing yards prop was 243.5, and his completions prop was 21.5. He completed 16 passes for 155 yards and threw two interceptions. The most concerning trend was Cousins' unwillingness to move in or outside the pocket.
The 13-year NFL veteran was supposed to be the Falcons' missing piece to a talented roster. They're still the favorites to win the NFC South, but their odds lengthened from -120 to +150. Atlanta is also a +6.5 road underdog against the Eagles in Week 2.
Was Week 1 just a poor debut or the start of a troubling trend? If the residuals of a torn Achilles and Father Time simultaneously hinder Cousins' abilities, the Falcons will be glad they drafted Michael Penix Jr. as an insurance policy.
J.K. Dobbins, another player returning from a season-ending Achilles injury, flashed his speed in Week 1. The running back exploded for 135 yards on 10 carries, including a 61-yard run.
Dobbins should have a hefty impact with the Chargers under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, who notoriously loves to run the football. He went from 40-1 to 13-1 to win Comeback Player of the Year.
Finally, no newcomer had a bigger impact than Saquon Barkley. Barkley flew past his rushing and receiving props in his Eagles debut with 109 yards rushing and 23 receiving. He scored three touchdowns - one receiving and two running - to keep Philadelphia's offense humming through a shaky quarterback performance from Jalen Hurts. Barkley should continue to record monster stat lines running behind an elite offensive line and with lethal threats at receiver.
Oddsmakers posted his Week 1 rushing prop at 65.5, but there should be an immediate adjustment to reflect Barkley's role in Philadelphia's offense. But will oddsmakers recalculation still be too low?
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.
