What the AFC playoff contenders can prove on a huge weekend
Back in 2007, the unbeaten Patriots slayed all comers and left no doubt about their inevitability. They cruised into their bye week with a 9-0 record and a plus-208 point differential on the way to a perfect regular season.
Like New England's memorable juggernaut, the Chiefs boast three recent championships. They're perfect this year, but they aren't spotless. Kansas City tops the NFL in wins yet ranks ninth in point differential at plus-58, the lowest number for a 9-0 team in the Super Bowl era.
Two truths coexist: The Chiefs are less convincing than their record, and they possess a special capacity to win by the skin of their teeth. Their seven one-score triumphs have included a walk-off field goal, an overtime touchdown march, and a blocked kick at the buzzer. Some combination of talent, heart, sorcery, and luck lets them flirt with danger.
Their attempt to keep rolling headlines a marquee weekend of football. Eight of the 12 AFC clubs in the playoff mix, including long shots that need to catch fire, are involved in head-to-head matchups.
The must-see slate spans every scheduling window, with Bengals-Chargers and Texans-Cowboys headlining Sunday night and Monday night, respectively. Week 11 will set the tone for the postseason push by teaching us lessons about the Chiefs, the challengers to their rule, and various wild-card hopefuls.
Sunday's Chiefs-Bills heavyweight bout is the fifth Week 11 meeting since 1970 between teams with at least eight wins. A Bills victory would tighten the competition for the No. 1 seed and the right to host a potential conference championship rematch.
The methodical Chiefs offense owns an elite completion rate (69.5%), third-down conversion rate (52%), and scoring rate (46.1% of drives produce points). They milk the clock, leading the NFL in average drive length, and win despite Patrick Mahomes' diminished weaponry (his top playmaker, Kareem Hunt, is 50th in scrimmage yards). Toying with Buffalo's defense would confirm the legitimacy of the perfect start.
A year ago, the Bills' cataclysmic meltdown against the Broncos dropped them to 5-5 and got their offensive coordinator fired. Their reduction of giveaways in 2024 has shored up a debilitating weakness. Josh Allen has halved his interception rate to 1.3% (he's only thrown four), the defense ranks third in takeaways (19), and Buffalo has outscored teams 78-20 on drives following turnovers, per TruMedia. That's a blueprint to beat rival contenders.
Ravens-Steelers is a prove-it game for both defenses. Baltimore gained the seventh-most offensive yards through 10 games in the Super Bowl era (4,402, 7.1 per play) because of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry's unstoppability. Pittsburgh's ferocious tacklers must limit chunk rushes (like the Bengals did last week, holding Henry to a longest run of 11 yards) and floor Jackson when possible (unlike Cincinnati ahead of his ludicrous tightrope scramble).
Pittsburgh quarterback Russell Wilson can attack Baltimore's vulnerable secondary. He leads the league in deep completion percentage (53.3% on passes traveling at least 20 yards) and landed three of those bombs for touchdowns in his three starts to date, per PFF. The Ravens allow the most passing yards and completed air yards, and they field six of the 41 NFL defensive backs who have surrendered at least three TDs apiece.
Pressure's mounting on the Texans to stop their skid in Dallas. They've blown leads in winnable contests and became the third team this century to lose a game despite snagging five interceptions, per Stathead. Houston's still comfortably in the playoff picture, and the imminent return of star wideout Nico Collins should rejuvenate C.J. Stroud.
Losers of the other key matchups risk tumbling out of the race. Sunday's nightcap in Los Angeles pits a desperate Bengals squad against a quarterback who can relate to NFL passing leader Joe Burrow's lack of help.
Justin Herbert yearns for a deep threat like Ja'Marr Chase - top Chargers receiver Ladd McConkey ranks 31st in yards - but he gets the defensive support that Burrow doesn't. Opponents fail to score on a league-best 76.8% of Chargers defensive drives. Caving down the stretch of shootouts, Cincinnati's defense ranks 32nd in points allowed and 30th in expected points added in the second half of games, per TruMedia.
In Indianapolis, Joe Flacco's demotion highlights the need for Anthony Richardson to buckle his chinstrap, show resilience and leadership, hit nearby targets, and consistently move the chains. Among qualified QBs, Richardson is the least accurate passer on short attempts (0-9 air yards) and ranks second-last on intermediate attempts (10-19 air yards) with a 51.3% completion rate across those distances, per PFF.
Sunday is big for the Colts, whose playoff odds would veer from 41% with a road win over the Jets to 14% in defeat, per NFL.com's Ali Bhanpuri. If Denver's losing slide continues against the Falcons, that would benefit Indy.
Aaron Rodgers' flailing 3-7 outfit can afford a maximum of one loss in seven upcoming games. The Jets must duplicate the 2023 Bills' 6-1 finish just to remain on the bubble.
The achievability of a dramatic turnaround rides on the defense's performance. The Jets flashed great potential earlier this season as one of three teams that have held multiple offenses below 200 yards. But a league-high four opponents have gashed Gang Green for over 350 yards without committing a turnover, per Stathead.
The 3-6 Dolphins teeter between the fringe of the playoff conversation and the bottom of the standings after wasting strong offensive efforts in close losses to the Cardinals and Bills.
They enjoy the third-easiest remaining schedule, per Tankathon, and they tend to put up a fight when Tua Tagovailoa is healthy (77.7% completion rate, 4-1 TD-INT split, just five total sacks over his last three starts). Winning back-to-back home games against the Raiders on Sunday and Patriots in Week 12 would brighten Miami's glimmer of hope.
Nick Faris is a features writer at theScore.