The Falcons drafting Penix doesn't look so bad now

Michael Penix Jr. going to the Falcons with the No. 8 pick in this year's draft was an all-time shocker. Nobody saw it coming, and for good reason.

The widespread confusion wasn't a knock on the Washington product - quarterbacks with that kind of talent are almost always worth taking in the top half of the first round. But Atlanta had made a major splash by signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180-million deal six weeks prior. That kind of commitment makes it difficult to get value out of a rookie quarterback in the short term ... or so we thought.

It took all of 14 games for the Falcons to admit they made a monumental mistake with the Cousins deal. They've now benched the veteran signal-caller after a particularly dreadful stretch of play, clearing the way for Penix to step in sooner than expected. Having a talented young passer waiting in the wings could prove to be a stroke of genius.

The Falcons squandered a comfortable lead atop the NFC South by dropping four straight games prior to Monday night. Cousins served up eight interceptions without throwing a single touchdown over that span. He was similarly bad in prime time against the Raiders, recording a season-low 122 yards as Atlanta managed all of 15 points while sweating out a win.

Penix will have to work through some growing pains in his first real NFL action, as is the case for any rookie quarterback. But it's difficult to imagine those struggles will be more damaging than the incumbent's recent negative plays. Cousins ranks 30th among qualified passers in EPA/dropback over the last six weeks, according to TruMedia; only Anthony Richardson and Drew Lock have been worse.

Cousins was never known for his movement skills, but he's lost any semblance of mobility after last year's Achilles injury. The 36-year-old entered this week having stayed within the pocket on an astounding 99.4% of dropbacks, according to Next Gen Stats. That leads all quarterbacks this season and is the second-highest mark since at least 2018. The statuesque nature of his game at this stage is also the likely explanation for his career-low 13.1% play-action rate.

The Falcons seemingly found a way to work around those limitations after a concerning season opener, but Cousins' fading arm strength also became an issue as the season continued. He's struggling to drive the ball and connect on some of the throws that were once a pivotal part of his game, ranking 33rd in PFF's big-time throw rate.

That drop-off, by extension, appears to be affecting his confidence when it comes to letting it rip in rhythm. All of this has made him uncharacteristically uncomfortable working through progressions, leading to the kind of poor decisions he's previously been able to minimize. Cousins leads the league with a career-worst 16 interceptions and is tied with Richardson for PFF's third-worst turnover-worthy play rate.

Penix, by comparison, plays with supreme confidence in his arm talent. The vertical game was his calling card at the helm of a prolific offense at Washington. Few quarterbacks in the league today can so effortlessly push the ball downfield with good placement and accuracy. And while he doesn't profile as a huge threat in the run game, he's certainly more capable of extending plays than this version of Cousins.

The clear upgrade in terms of physical gifts, along with a more aggressive play style, has the potential to provide an immediate boost for an Atlanta offense that desperately needs a spark. Even if Penix isn't elevating his teammates at this early stage, the Falcons could do damage with a QB who isn't dragging down a group of skill-position players as talented as Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts.

Atlanta's closing stretch of games against the Giants, Commanders, and Panthers gives Penix an opportunity to come flying out of the gate and keep the Falcons alive in the NFC South race.

None of this changes the Falcons' disastrous decision to dish out $100 million in guarantees to an aging quarterback coming off a major injury. Cutting Cousins this offseason will leave the team with $65 million in dead money, according to Over the Cap - an unfortunate reality that will wash out some of the value of having Penix on a rookie contract.

But the spectacular failure of that move should alter the overwhelmingly negative way we viewed Atlanta's draft-day stunner. Instead of a Cousins flop sending the Falcons back to the drawing board with no obvious fallback plan, the staff simply moves up the timeline for a player it already saw as the future.

At the very least, having Penix in-house sounds a whole lot better than wading into the murky waters of the 2025 QB class. Don't sleep on his chances of keeping the Falcons in the mix this season, either.